Superfreakonomics – over die rare economen (2010)

Superfreakonomics, Steven Levitt en Stephen Dubner (2010)

Economen kijken op een bepaalde manier naar de wereld. En als econoom kun je het niet altijd uitzetten, het wordt bijna ‘a way of living’. Maar wat is dat dan voor manier van kijken en van denken? De meeste hebben er wel een beeld bij, economen kijken naar de cijfertjes, ze zijn koel en rationeel. Ze kijken natuurlijk wel naar gedrag van mensen, maar niet naar de intentie of de moraal, het gaat ze om de output, om de uitkomst. Economen redeneren vanuit een model waarin rationale ‘agenten’ reageren op prikkels zoals prijzen. In de economie draait het om schaarste en dus om de verhouding tussen vraag en aanbod.

Economen zijn, zeker als deze manier van denken niet meer uitgezet kan worden, rare lui met een eigen taaltje. Een paar jaar geleden vond ik dat Levitt en Dubner (LD)deze rare manier van denken fraai illustreerden in hun populaire boek ‘Freakonomics’. Het recente verschijnen van de opvolger ‘Superfreakonomics’ vormt voor mij een mooie aanleiding om eens wat dieper op het economendenken in te gaan. En alvast een deel van de evaluatie: het boek is soepel geschreven en ook voor leken prima te lezen. Het boek illustreert overtuigend de voordelen die economendenken kan hebben maar laat af en toe ook iets van de valkuilen ervan doorschemeren.

Levitt is een ‘echte’ econoom die veel publiceert in wetenschappelijke tijdschriften. Dubner is een econoom-journalist en zal de sparring-partner voor Levitt zijn met de oren en ogen van het gewone volk. LD zijn boeiend omdat ze enerzijds helemaal in het keurslijf van de economische wetenschap blijven (het zijn economen volgens het boekje zogezegd) maar anderzijds hele originele onderwerpen en invalshoeken hebben die bij mij vaak het effect hebben dat ik het boek wegleg om even na te denken (klopt dit nu wel? word ik hier in het ootje genomen?). Dus is het automatisch zo dat LD zeggen geen waardeoordelen te hebben (‘we kiezen geen partij’), iets is niet goed of slecht maar gewoon een uitkomst van een model. Mensen zijn inderdaad calculerend of rationeel in die zin dat ze reageren op prikkels en dat ze streven naar de meest efficiente inzet van schaarse hulpbronnen om hun doelen te bereiken. Maar typerend voor dit boek: ‘mensen reageren niet noodzakelijk op een manier die voorspelbaar of zichtbaar is. Daarom is een van de machtigste wetten van het universum de wet van de onbedoelde gevolgen. Dit geldt voor onderwijzers en makelaars en drugsdealers, maar ook voor zwangere vrouwen, sumoworstelaars, bagelverkopers en de Ku-klux-klan’.

Aardig van LD (en van economen) is dat ze niet alleen redeneren vanuit een verzonnen model maar vooral ook naar de data kijken. Juist Levitt onderscheidt zich in zijn artikelen door het gebruik van unieke data over de meest vreemde onderwerpen waar hij dan weer de meest onverwachte conclusies uit haalt. In hun eigen woorden: ‘dit boek gaat over dingen die u dacht te weten, terwijl dat niet zo was, en dingen die u nooit hebt willen weten, maar wel weet’. Ik heb de vele verhalen uit dit boek in een paar thema’s ondergebracht:

  • de menselijke natuur
  • data-analyse
  • onbedoelde bijeffecten (collateral damage)
  • technologie (als oplossing voor alle problemen)

De menselijke natuur

Zijn mensen nu egoistisch of altruistisch? Het antwoord is hierboven al gegeven: mensen zijn geen van beide (of beiden) want ze reageren ‘gewoon’ op prikkels. In de jaren 60 werd in een vrouw in New York aangevallen en daarna vermoord. De moord duurde van begin tot eind 35 minuten en werd door tientallen mensen vanuit hun woning geobserveerd zonder dat iemand iets deed of alarm sloeg. Een duidelijke demonstratie van egoisme lijkt het. Door Malcolm Gladwell is dit fenomeen in zijn ‘Tipping point’ later omschreven als het ‘omstandereffect’ waarbij de aanwezigheid van meerdere getuigen van een tragedie ingrijpen zelfs kan verhinderen. Economen en psychologen hebben in vele laboratorium-experimenten onderzocht of mensen bereid zijn anderen te helpen. Het zijn van die experimenten waarin alle spelers een bepaald bedrag krijgen wat ze ofwel grotendeel zelf mogen houden ofwel met een ander mogen delen. Aanvankelijk bleek uit de experimenten dat de meerderheid van de spelers ging voor een gelijke verdeling. Oftewel: altruisme zit in de mens ingebakken. Economen hadden het in hun tekstboeken met hun homo economicus dus fout. Het onderzoek heeft veel lof geoogst en heeft een Nobelprijs opgeleverd. Tot ‘blauweboorden-econoom’ John List dit onderwerp op zijn eigen wijze aanpakte. List dacht dat de resultaten van de experimenten werden beinvloed door het kunstmatige laboratorium-karakter. List deed daarom experimenten op echte ruilbeurzen (waar verzamelaar honkbalplaatjes ruilden en kochten). Van het keurige gedrag in het experimenten-kamertje bleef niets over. De handelaars belazerden hun klanten elke keer weer en gaven hun minder goede plaatjes dan ze op grond van het bedrag hadden moeten krijgen. Ook breidde hij het eerdere experiment met de 2 keuzes (groot deel zelf houden versus gelijk verdelen) uit met de extra keuze om een dollar van de ander af te pakken. Ditmaal gaven de experimenten aan dat de gulle gevers fors in aantal daalden en dat 20 procent zelfs geld afpakte van de ander. Andere experimenten toonden weer aan dat het uitmaakte of de spelers het geld vooraf zomaar kregen of dat ze ervoor moesten werken. Als mensen weten dat ze geobserveerd worden in een experiment gaan ze sociaal-gewenst gedrag vertonen (om de onderzoeker te plezieren) en naarmate de experimenten meer op de werkelijkheid gaan lijken (in het echt krijg je zelden zomaar een bedrag en moet je er meestal iets voor doen) verdwenen de eerdere altruistische uitkomsten grotendeels. Terug is de homo economicus.

Mensen reageren op economische prikkels. LD geven als voorbeeld de moeizame discussie in het Westen over het afstaan van donor-organen. In de meeste landen is er een tekort aan donor-organen. In Iran schijn je 1200 dollar te krijgen voor het afstaan van een nier en ook de ontvanger betaalt voor de nier. In de VS werd deze gedachte barbaars gevonden (een jonge Al Gore vroeg zich spottend af ‘of we soms korting moeten geven als we ze het Vrijheidsbeeld laten zien’). Economen kijken gewoon naar het effect: worden de wachtlijsten korter? Ander voorbeeld. Op basis van een langjarige studie werd aangetoond dat een bejaarde in een tehuis meer kans maakt op bezoek van haar kinderen al die een flinke erfenis te wachten staat. Maar, zo is de tegenwerping, kinderen van rijke ouders zijn gewoon zorgzamer. Maar vervolgens blijkt uit de studie ook dat als diezelfde rijke ouders maar 1 kind hebben er minder bezocht wordt. Er zijn minimaal 2 kinderen nodig voor rijke ouders om veel bezoek te krijgen. Wat op het eerste gezicht dus op altruisme lijkt komt dus in feite neer op het vooruitbetalen van successiebelasting.

Data-analyse

Natuurlijk is het beter geen alcohol te drinken als je daarna zelf nog thuis moet zien te komen. Maar als je dan toch te veel op hebt, wat is beter: met een slokje op achter het stuur kruipen of toch maar gaan lopen (ervan uitgaande dat het maar een paar kilometer is)? Iedereen zal onmiddellijk beweren dat lopen de beste optie is. Maar hoe zit het als je naar de data kijkt? Op iedere 43.000 dronken gereden kilometers is er maar 1 arrestatie. Vier keer op en neer van de ene naar de andere kant van de VS en je wordt maar 1 keer gearresteerd. De pakkans is dus gering. En dat terwijl elk jaar meer dan 1.000 dronken voetgangers in de VS om het leven komen in het verkeer. Als het rekensommetje wordt gemaakt blijkt dat de voetganger 8 keer meer kans maakt om het leven te laten dan de bestuurder. Een echte vriend van u zal u dus op het feestje adviseren niet te gaan lopen! Het is natuurlijk nog beter om de taxi te nemen en het verhaaltje houdt ook geen rekening met het feit dat u als dronken bestuurder ook nog andere levens in gevaar brengt (maar zelfs daarvoor gecorrigeerd schijnt lopen nog meer levens te kosten per km!). Hier is ie weer: de moraalloze en koele manier van redeneren.

Wat is eigenlijk het effect van een kinderzitje in de auto? Na de invoering van de gordel is het dodelijke risico van autorijden enorm afgenomen. Een gordel brengt het risico op dodelijke afloop bij een ongeluk terug met 70 procent. Als je in de auto stapt en 24 uur per dag met 50 km per uur rondrijdt dan ben je na ongeveer 285 jaar aan de beurt om dodelijk te verongelukken. Het kost ongeveer 25 dollar om een gordelsetje te maken en als je de kosten voor monteren meerekent en dat relateert aan de daling van het aantal doden, dan blijkt een mensenleven gered te kunnen worden voor 30.000 dollar. Ter vergelijking: de kosten van een gered mensenleven door gebruik van een airbag is 1,4 miljoen dollar. Maar hoe zit het nu met het kinderzitje? Uit de data blijkt dat een kinderzitje ten opzichte van een gordel voor kinderen niet zo veel extra doet. Als er speciale gordels voor kinderen gemaakt zouden worden dan zou het wel eens kunnen zijn dat die gordels nog beter dienst doen dan kinderzitjes. Maar los daarvan: kinderzitjes zijn veel duurder om te maken en ook nog eens onhandig. Maar het grootste minpunt van een kinderzitje is dat het ouders een misplaatst gevoel van veiligheid geeft. Een simpele oplossing die goedkoop is en meer levens bespaart is uiteindelijk verdrongen door iets wat duur en onhandig is. Oftewel: de werkelijkheid volgt niet altijd de rationele analyse op basis van objectieve data.

Met de opkomst van snelle en goedkope computers wordt steeds meer in het wilde weg naar verbanden in grote hoeveelheden data gezocht. Dat wordt met een mooi woord ‘data-mining’ genoemd. Zou je op basis van data van banken (de bankgeschiedenis) terroristen kunnen ontdekken? Analyse van de bankgeschiedenis van terroristen laat zien dat ze 1 grote storting doen en daarna in de loop van de tijd kleine bedragen opnemen, hun bankzaken weerspiegelden geen gewone uitgaven als huur en verzekeringen, er wordt gebruik gemaakt van een postbusnummer als adres. En een potentiele terrorist blijkt geen levensverzekering af te sluiten, misschien vreemd als je bedenkt dat de terrorist na zijn daad een familie achterlaat maar de reden is dat verzekeringsmaatschappijen niet uitkeren als de polishouder zelfmoord pleegt. Om een lang verhaal kort te maken: zelfs met dit soort verbanden blijven er van de miljoenen bankklanten nog steeds vele honderden kandidaten over waaronder de meeste volstrekt onschuldig. Inmiddels zijn de zoek-algoritmes zo verfijnd (de achtergrond daarvan is vanzelfsprekend geheim) dat uiteindelijk een lijst met 30 namen overblijft waarvan er met grote zekerheid 5 zijn betrokken bij terroristische activiteiten. De kans is groot dat aanslagen zijn voorkomen op basis van dit soort data-mining.

Onbedoelde bijeffecten

In het engels: collateral damage, bijkomende schade. Als we nog even doorgaan met terrorisme. De aanslagen van 11 september 2001 hebben die dag bijna 3.000 slachtoffers gevergd. Maar de grootste schade is daarna pas gekomen. In de drie maanden na de aanslag waren er 1.000 extra verkeersdoden in de VS. Mensen stopten met vliegen uit angst voor aanslagen en gingen met de auto reizen (per afgelegde km is vliegtuigverkeer veiliger dan autoverkeer). De beschikbare capaciteit van politie werd na de aanslagen sterk verlegd naar terrorisme-bestrijding. Zo kon geld en mankracht niet langer worden besteed aan andere belangrijke zaken als het jagen op financiele schurken (LD: zo heeft de aanslag van 11/9 bijgedragen aan de recente financiele crisis). Duizenden buitenlandse studenten en hoogleraren konden door visumbeperkingen niet langer de VS in. Maar denk ook eens aan alle extra tijd die we dagelijks kwijt zijn aan de controles en tolpoortjes op de vliegvelden: een simpele procedure als je schoenen uittrekken kost een minuut en wordt in de VS alleen al 560 miljoen keer per jaar gedaan. Met een gemiddelde levensverwachting van net onder de 80 jaar, betekent dat een verlies van 14 mensenlevens per jaar.

Hiervoor is al een voorbeeld van bijkomende schade genoemd: de introductie van kinderzitjes die ouders een misplaatst gevoel van veiligheid geeft. Dit fenomeen, dat het je verzekeren tegen mogelijke schade nieuw en averechts gedrag uitlokt, wordt in de economische literatuur ‘adverse selection’ genoemd. Als een bepaalde bank slecht presteert en gedwongen is haar rentetarieven te verhogen dan leidt dat tot een automatische selectie van de slechtere klanten. Immers: de beste klanten kunnen bij de renteverhoging het makkelijkst bij een andere goedkope bank terecht. Zo blijft de renteverhogende bank zitten met de kneusjes waardoor het nog slechter gaat met de bank en weer een renteverhoging volgt en zo door totdat de bank faillliet gaat. Voor ziekteverzekeringen geldt hetzelfde principe: hoe hoger de premie hoe meer dat vanzelf leidt tot de selectie van de mensen die de meeste kans op ziekte en dus onkosten maken. LD geven nog een mooi voorbeeld uit de praktijk. Prostituees zijn tegen extra betaling bereid tegemoet te komen aan vreemde verzoeken van de klant. Een ding staat echter buiten discussie: klanten moeten altijd een condoom gebruiken. LD vragen aan de prostituee of ze bereid is het zonder een condoom te doen als de klant 1 miljoen dollar wil betalen. Het antwoord is een resoluut nee: als een klant gestoord genoeg is om 1 miljoen te betalen voor een rondje onbeschermde seks, dan is het zo gevaarlijk dat hij koste wat kost vermeden moet worden. Oftewel: het is niet een willekeurige klant die de bereidheid toont, alleen de extreme gevallen zullen die bereidheid tonen.

Technologie als oplossing voor alle problemen

Aan het begin van de twintigste eeuw woonden en werkten er zo’n 200.000 paarden in New York, 1 paard op elke 17 mensen. En wat een problemen dat veroorzaakte: vreselijke opstoppingen, dode paarden op de weg die voor nog meer opstoppingen zorgden, maar het ergste was de mest. Waar laat je 2,5 miljoen kilo paardemest per dag? Op lege stukken grond was de mest tot soms wel 20 meter opgestoken, als het regende lekte een soepachtige stroom paardemest de kelders in (een reden waarom de woonruimte hoger werd gebouwd destijds). Maar al deze mest was een broedplaats voor vliegen en dodelijke ziektes. In 1898 vond in New York de eerste internationale stedenbouwkundige conferentie plaats. Er moest een oplossing komen voor de crisis waar alle grote steden in de wereld mee kampten. Maar niemand had een oplossing, de conferentie werd na 3 dagen opgebroken in plaats van de geplande 10 dagen.

Het probleem verdween vanzelf, niet door een ingreep van mensen maar door een technologische vinding. De auto werd gezien als de redder van het milieu, over de hele wereld konden de mensen in de steden weer schone lucht inademenen. En zo leggen LD moeiteloos de link naar de hedendaagse klimaatcrisis. Waarom zouden we er nu veel tijd en geld insteken om het probleem op te lossen als de geschiedenis bewijst dat er steeds een nieuwe vinding komt (die minder kost dan alle huidige opties). De analyse van het klimaatprobleem is in de ogen van LD simpel: er is sprake van wat in economentermen ‘externaliteiten’ wordt genoemd. Er is sprake van een externaliteit als jouw gedrag tot (meestal negatieve) effecten leidt bij een ander en jij betaalt niet voor die door anderen geleden schade. Bij het winnen en afvoeren van kolen zijn de afgelopen eeuw honderdduizend mijnwerkers omgekomen en enkele honderdduizenden gestorven aan stoflongen. Dat zijn dus externaliteiten, de schade zit niet ingecalculeerd in de prijs van een kilo kolen. Of neem iets heel simpels: omdat er auto’s worden gestolen komt iemand op het idee een klem op zijn stuur te zetten. Het stelen van de auto wordt daardoor bemoeilijkt. Maar het effect is dat de auto die ernaast staat en geen stuurklem heeft ineens een veel grotere kans heeft om gestolen te worden. De eigenaar van de buurauto wordt zo geconfronteerd met extra kosten (gestolen auto of stuurklem) die hij niet vergoed krijgt.

De oplossing voor het voorkomen van externaliteiten is in theorie ook simpel. Zorgen dat de extra kosten worden doorbelast, met andere woorden dat de externaliteit wordt geinternaliseerd. Theoretisch kan dan met de opslag iedereen schadeloos worden gesteld. Maar LD wensen iedereen die zo de milieucrisis wil oplossen veel succes. Kortom: alle hoop ligt in een nieuwe vinding. Als pleister op de wonde besteden LD een flink deel van het betreffende hoofdstuk aan een aantal technische oplossingen waar op dit moment aan wordt gewerkt. En dat is een mooi moment om over te gaan op de evaluatie van het boek …

Evaluatie

Een prachtig boek, vlot geschreven, overtuigende voorbeelden, echte eye-openers, leuke puzzeltjes voor op de camping op een stoeltje voor de tent. Een prima kijk op het economendenken, met zijn positieve maar ook met zijn mindere punten. Het boek is daarmee zeker geen kritiekloze oefening in marktdenken, maar laat ook zien hoe het fout of raar kan lopen. En de oplossingen van dat soort gevallen worden er ook niet altijd bij gegeven (kijk maar naar het kinderzitje, het is er gewoon en zal ook nog wel even blijven).

Maar wat economen inderdaad hebben is dat heilige geloof in technologische vooruitgang. En het irritante is dat de geschiedenis ze daarin gelijk geeft. Persoonlijk vind ik de behandeling van de klimaatcrisis (maar in het kielzog daarvan: energiecrisis, voedselcrisis, financiele crisis) te makkelijk en zelfs gevaarlijk. Door dat eeuwige geloof in vooruitgang lijkt het allemaal mee te vallen, hoef ik mijn gedrag niet te veranderen. Hun analyse van Al Gore kan ik nog wel volgen. Gore die in zijn film mensen bang maakt en alleen maar met gedragsverandering lijkt te komen. En economen (mijzelf incluis) geloven niet in gedragsverandering zomaar, een beroep op de moraal doen gaat niet werken. Het gaat om het vinden van de palletjes in het complexe systeem van prikkels zodanig dat ongewenste externaliteiten en irrationaliteiten zoveel mogelijk worden voorkomen. Ook dat is economie. En daar laten LD het helaas afweten.

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