De toekomst is groen (2008)

De toekomst is groen (warm, plat en vol) (2008)

Een samenvatting van het boek van Thomas Friedman in 10 stelllingen.

1.Het jaar 2000 is de start van een nieuw tijdperk: het Energie- en Klimaat-tijdperk, kortweg EKT. Er komen drie grote trends samen, de wereld raakt voller (bevolkingsexplosie=tekort aan energie en grondstoffen), de wereld wordt warmer (uitstoot, vervuiling, verlies aan biodiversiteit) en de wereld wordt platter (mondiaal economisch netwerk). Dit is niet iets wat vanzelf overgaat, er is sprake van een trendbreuk en van ‘alarmfase groen’. Niets doen betekent onvermijdelijk en zeer snel afstevenen op een van de vele rampscenario’s.

2.Het is de verslaafdheid aan olie van het Westen die de rest van de problemen veroorzaakt. Het Amerikaanse model is iedereen een auto, huis en tv met bijbehorende afhankelijkheid van energie en dus olie. De wereld raakt voller en platter betekent dat er miljarden van dergelijke consumenten bijkomen. Paradox is dat Amerika met haar olieverslaving haar eigen vijanden subsidieert en door het opstuwen van de olieprijs de democratie in de oliestaten om zeep helpt.

3.Elk probleem in de ontwikkelde en ontwikkelings-wereld is tegelijkertijd een energieprobleem. Het aangrijpingspunt voor een mondiale oplossing zit daarom in het oplossen van het energievraagstuk. Volop schone energie betekent dat de warme wereld leefbaarder wordt, de platte wereld rechtvaardiger en de volle wereld comfortabeler.

4.De oplossing is het vinden van nieuwe vormen van overvloedige, schone, betrouwbare en goedkope energie. Het gaat hier niet om ‘een uitvinding’ maar om een heel nieuw systeem om de economie aan te drijven. Halfslachtige oplossingen, ‘de 100 manieren om groener te leven en stapje-voor-stapje de planeet te redden’, gaan niet werken. Dit wordt DE klus van de eeuw die enorme inspanningen en offers zal vergen!

5.De weg naar het nieuwe systeem verloopt langs twee parallelle sporen. Het eerste spoor is het opzetten van een energieweb, het tweede spoor is het afdwingen van een technologisch-innovatieve doorbraak.

6.Energieweb (1). Hier komen IT (informatietechniek) en ET (energietechniek) samen. Alle apparaten die op het stroomnet zijn aangesloten moeten slim worden. Ze worden met slimme elektronica zo geprogrammeerd dat ze aan en uit gaan wanneer ze nodig zijn en wanneer energie tegen een gewenste prijs beschikbaar is.

7.Energieweb (2). De aanbieders van energie gaan op continue basis en wederom ondersteund door slimme IT gedifferentieerd prijzen, goedkoop als er weinig vraag is, duur als er veel vraag is. Dit vergt een herorientatie op de inrichting en sturing van de energiebedrijven. Er dient een ontkoppeling van winst en verkoop bij de energiebedrijven plaats te vinden. Decentrale en aanvullende opwekking van energie moet gestimuleerd en gefaciliteerd worden. Hier is een uitdrukkelijke rol weggelegd voor toezichtshouders en bestuurders, de markt zal dit niet automatisch oplossen!

8.Een technologisch-innovatieve doorbraak. Om de kans hierop maximaal te maken zijn enorme investeringen in onderzoek nodig. Ook hier geldt dat de markt dit niet automatisch en vanzelfsprekend zal oppakken. Overheden dienen als first movers en versnellers op te treden en regels, afspraken, arrangementen, financieringsconstructies, subsidies en boetes in het leven te roepen. Het boek van Friedman is een oproep aan Amerika om hierin mondiaal het voortouw te nemen.

9.Daarmee komt de oplossing van Friedman neer op – een schone manier van opwekken, – een energiezuinig netwerk, – een slim huis, – een slimme auto, – een slimme fabriek en – een slim systeem van beleid en financiele prikkels.

10.Het woord ‘groen’ in een bijzondere betekenis zal moeten verdwijnen. Energiezuinig wordt de norm, andere mogelijkheden zijn er niet meer. Het gaat erom je concurrent ’te groen af te zijn’.

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