ideologie van de vrije markt (2011)

23 dingen die ze je niet vertellen over het kapitalisme, Ha-Joon Chang, 2010-2011

De economische catastrofe van dit moment is mede veroorzaakt door een ongefundeerd vertrouwen in vrije markt werking. Alles komt goed, als je de markten hun werk maar laat doen. Chang vertelt in 23 ‘dingen’ (2010) waarom de vrije markt niet op alles het antwoord is.

Volledige marktwerking is een fictie

Een heleboel zaken zijn gewoonweg niet vrij. Je kunt geen diploma van de universiteit op de markt (legaal) kopen. Sommige medicijnen mogen niet vrij worden verkocht. Handel in vuurwapens is verboden. Er is wetgeving over kinderarbeid. Wij verdienen in het Westen relatief veel omdat er restricties zijn op vrije toetreding van arbeid en van immigranten. Om maar wat zaken te noemen. Uiteindelijk zijn er altijd grenzen aan waar het vrije ruilproces begint en waar het ophoudt, in wezen is de vrije markt altijd een debat over morele waarden en politieke besluiten. Economen lijken de laatste 25 jaar een bijdrage te hebben geleverd aan de ongefundeerde verspreiding van het ideologisch vrije marktdenken. Bewust of onbewust hebben zij als beroepsgroep daarmee de crisis aangezwengeld.

Interne markten

Als we over vrije markten speken dan denken we aan de handel tussen bedrijven onderling. Maar we vergeten dan dat bedrijven zelf grote ‘interne markten’ kennen. Op die markten is over het algemeen sprake van langere termijn afspraken en inperking van korte-termijn vrijheden. Een medewerker spreekt voor een jaar of langer zijn salaris en voorwaarden af en gaat niet elke dag opnieuw onderhandelen over zijn taken en zijn beloning. Ook interne afdelingen rekenen elkaar niet voortdurend af op hun onderlinge toegevoegde waarde. Zo bekeken wordt 80% van alle markten gestuurd door langere termijn afspraken en convenanten. In het verlengde hiervan: een vrije markt kent geen planning van bovenaf, de markten zorgen zelf voor de goede signalen en evenwichten. Het is ondenkbaar dat er binnen een bedrijf zo zou worden gedacht: alle medewerkers en toeleveranciers interacteren voortdurend met elkaar en het komt vanzelf goed. Een bedrijf komt verder door een andere visie, een heldere strategie en planning, door het stellen van targets, door actieve bijsturing op die targets. Maar niet alleen bedrijven plannen hun activiteiten, ook landen plannen hun activiteiten al is het maar via subsidiering van gericht onderzoek.

Staatssteun helpt

Als we de economische geschiedenis bestuderen dan blijken vrijwel alle landen die nu rijk zijn gebruik te hebben gemaakt van protectionisme en subsidies om hun opgroeiende industrieen toe wasdom te laten komen. Ook is er vrijwel altijd sprake geweest van beperkingen aan buitenlandse investeringen. Ook zijn er tal van voorbeelden uit vrije-markt landen waar grote bedrijven met gemeenschapsgeld van de ondergang werden gered (recent natuurlijk nog de financiele instellingen). Er zijn frappante voorbeelden van staatsgestuurde bedrijven die ondanks een trage start uiteindelijk toch zeer succesvol zijn gebleken. Een voorbeeld is de contra-intuitieve productie van laagwaardig staal in Korea vanaf 1973. Rond 1990 had Korea een van de grootste en kostenefficiente staalbedrijven ter wereld. Ook de VS kent door middel van toekenning van subsidies enorme successen in de computer-, halfgeleider- en vliegtuigindustrie, internet en biotechnologie.

De mythe van de-industrialisatie

Misschien geen teken van marktfalen maar wel een economische mythe. We zijn steeds minder afhankelijk van industriele productie en verdienen ons geld met kennisintensieve dienstverlening. Geen probleem dus dat China de fabriek van de wereld wordt. Maar dienstverlening kent niet de productiviteitsverhoging van productie en is daarmee een slechte aanjager van economische groei. Ook zijn diensten slecht te exporteren en ontstaat op den duur een importoverschot en daarmee een tekort aan kapitaal om geavanceerde technologie uit het buitenland aan te schaffen (ook weer groeiverlagend). Daarom is het een mythe. Ook zogenaamde dienstenlanden blijven produceren. De voornaamste oorzaak van de zogenaamde de-industrialisatie is niet de enorme import uit China maar het feit dat diensten relatief steeds duurder worden tov geproduceerde goederen. We blijven in absolute zin evenveel produceren maar in termen van het nationaal inkomen wordt het aandeel steeds kleiner.

Beperkte rationaliteit

Het is algemeen bekend dat individueel rationaal handelen kan resulteren in collectief irrationele uitkomsten. Chang laat dit fenomeen verder onbesproken en diept in plaats daarvan verder uit dat om te beginnen veel handelen al helemaal niet (individueel) rationeel is. Probleem is dat wij niet in staat zijn onbeperkt informatie te verwerken. Meer informatie komt de kwaliteit van de beslissing lang niet altijd ten goede. De kwaliteit van beslissen gaat vaak omhoog met het beperken van de keuzevrijheid om het aantal en de complexiteit van problemen te reduceren. De overheid weet het dan niet automatisch beter dan de markt (beide partijen kennen in economische zin grote mislukkingen en grote successen) maar de overheid kan de spelregels opzettelijk vereenvoudigen door het stellen van restricties.

Te veel vrijheid is schadelijk

Als we financiele crises willen voorkomen moeten we de bewegingsvrijheid van de financiele sector drastisch inperken. Wat we volstrekt normaal vinden voor medicijnen, auto’s en electrische apparaten (pas invoeren na uitgebreide testen) moeten we ook normaal gaan vinden voor nieuwe financiele producten. Te veel onzekerheid en (te) snelle aanpassingen kan leiden tot onderbenutting van potentieel of zelfs tot destablisatie van markten. Een voorbeeld van het eerste (onderbenutting) op de arbeidsmarkt: bij te veel onzekerheden kiezen werknemers voor de veilige beroepen en is sprake van onderbenutting van schaarse talenten. Een voorbeeld van de destabliserende werking vinden we weer op de fianciele markten. Financiele markten zijn vooral efficient in het genereren van winsten voor zichzelf op de korte termijn. Een puur op de financiele sector aangewezen groei van de economie is kortzichtig, zie de voorbeelden in Ijsland en Ierland. De fianciele sector wordt dan zelfs zo interessant dat reele productiebedrijven (zoals General Motors) zich gaan toeleggen op financiele producten waar ze er beter aan zouden doen hun eigen producten te verbeteren.

De mythe van de kenniseconomie

En dan kennis. Meer kennis en meer onderwijs leidt vanzelfsprekend tot meer economische groei. Dat blijkt statistisch nog niet zo makkelijk te liggen. Door de toenemende mechanisering is wellicht juist een lager opleidingsniveau nodig dan vroeger (aan de kassa hoef je niet meer te kunnen rekenen). Het lijkt overtuigend: met een hogere opleiding word je productiever omdat je meer gaat verdienen. Veel studies (literatuur, geschiedenis, filosofie, muziek) zijn economisch en praktisch bezien pure tijdverspilling, evenals veel van wat je op universiteiten leert. Ook lijkt de opleidingsinflatie (je moet wel een opleiding doen want anderen doen het ook, anders kom je helemaal niet meer in aanmerking voor die baan) verspilling van tijd en energie vanuit een economisch perspectief (vergelijk het met het theater waar mensen voor je gaan staan om het beter te zien, waardoor jij ook moet gaan staan etc. Uiteindelijk moet iedereen gaan staan en ziet niemand het beter). Het gaat uiteindelijk om het vermogen van een land om meer productieve kennis te genereren dan anderen dat zorgt voor meer welvaart. Dat vermogen wordt niet alleen bepaald door het opleidingsniveau van de individuele burgers maar eerder door de juiste instituties en organisaties die voor bundeling en hogere productiviteit zorgen.

Wat zijn dan de 4 leidende hoofdthema’s die steeds terugkeren in ‘alle dingen’?

1. Beperking in vrijheden vergroot efficiency van beslissingen want vergroot eenvoud. Rationaliteit in volledige informatie is een fictie. Er is sprake van beperkte rationaliteit (bounded rationality). Daarom moeten bepaalde financiele producten domweg verboden worden tenzij er uitdrukkelijk een bewezen bijdrage is aan de samenleving op lange termijn.

2. Veel markten zijn intern en daar is geen sprake van volledige marktwerking. Interne markten van bedrijven kenmerken zich juist door visievorming, planning en sturing. Planning mag als die indicatief is, en dus moet de rol van overheden op dit terrein groter en actiever worden.

3. Kennis en onderwijs zijn niet zonder meer de motors van economische groei. Er lijkt een grotere rol weggelegd voor de onderliggende sociale en economische instituties. Het gaat om het sociale vermogen kennis te vertalen naar productieve innovatie.

4. Dat fysieke productie niet meer relevant is voor de moderne Westerse wereld is onjuist. Het lijkt dat het belang van productie afneemt door de enorme productiviteits stijgingen die kenmerkend zijn voor fysieke productie. Een al te grote nadruk op verdienstelijking (met name het opkrikken van de financiele sector) kan gevaarlijk zijn. We moeten daarom ‘dingen maken’ serieuzer gaan nemen. Investeringen in saaie dingen als machines, infrastructuur en training moeten worden aangemoedigd.

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