De grote bankroof (2010)

De grote bankroof

    Gecombineerde boekbespreking van:

  • John Cassidy, Wat als de markt faalt (2010)
  • Joseph Stiglitz, Vrije val (2010)

Aanleiding is het recente verschijnen van twee boeken, van de hand van journalist John Cassidy en van nobelprijswinnaar Joe Stiglitz, over de financiele crisis. En hoewel beide boeken eenzelfde onderwerp en focus hebben, vullen ze elkaar prima aan, een reden om ze beiden in een bespreking op te nemen. Cassidy geeft een systematisch betoog over de opkomst van het vrije markt denken, vervolgt met de vraag waarom de markt uiteindelijk niet werkt om de opgebouwde inzichten vervolgens te gebruiken om de ontstane crisis te verklaren. Cassidy doet dat zoals gezegd redelijk systematisch, in die zin is het boek te zien als een beknopte geschiedenis van het economisch denken, maar vooral ook redelijk neutraal, als een onpartijdige toeschouwer. Stiglitz daarentegen vermengt de theoretische onderbouwing voortdurend met de analyse van de bankencrisis, kiest dus als het ware voor een ‘simultaan-aanpak’ Maar Stiglitz is vooral iemand die in dit boek een duidelijke mening heeft en partijen veroordeelt. Het lijkt de wereld op zijn kop, Stiglitz is toch de nobelprijswinnaar en wiskundig-economisch wetenschapper, Cassidy de verhalende en opinierende journalist? Beide heren zaten en zitten dichtbij het vuur, alleen al een reden deze boeken serieus te nemen. Cassidy heeft als econoom en journalist veel van de hoofdrolspelers geinterviewd de laatste 10-15 jaar. Stiglitz is als leerling van Paul Samuelson (naast Keynes een van de bekendste economen van de vorige eeuw) sinds de jaren 60 topeconoom van grote reputatie met honderden artikelen en boeken op zijn naam (en zoals gezegd, vanwege zijn baanbrekende bijdragen ook Nobelprijs winnaar). Stiglitz is behalve wetenschapper ook bekend met de praktijk, onder andere in zijn rol als voormalig voorzitter van de Council of Economic Advisors van president Clinton.

Wat is het probleem?

Het probleem is dat er de afgelopen decennia veel individuen puissant rijk zijn geworden in en door een groter economisch systeem dat uiteindelijk grote maatschappelijke schade en veel persoonlijk leed heeft veroorzaakt. Het gaat over een periode van de ‘conservatieve dominantie’ van 1997-2007 die gekenmerkt wordt door drie uiteenspattende zeepbellen: de ‘dot.com’ zeepbel (technologie aandelen), de energie zeepbel (olieprijzen) en de vastgoed-zeepbel (huizenprijzen). En er is ondanks de enorme kosten die al zijn gemaakt vooralsnog geen reden om aan te nemen dat het tijdperk van de instabiliteit van de spattende zeepbellen nu ten einde is. Als we de kans op herhaling echt willen voorkomen dan moeten we beter snappen hoe het zover heeft kunnen komen. Cassidy beperkt zich tot het ‘snappen’ en komt niet echt met oplossingen of aanbevelingen in zijn boek, Stiglitz daarentegen neemt geen genoegen met ‘snappen’ en veegt de vloer aan met de wereldwijd genomen maatregelen en komt zelf met betere alternatieven.

De ‘kale’ reconstructie van wat er is gebeurd is makkelijk genoeg te vertellen. Het zijn de verhalen die we allemaal wel kennen van tv en uit de kranten. Het standaard verhaal begint met het ruime geld beleid vanaf eind jaren negentig in Amerika. De rente wordt laag gehouden waardoor banken goedkoop kunnen lenen bij de monetaire autoriteiten. Politiek wordt het brede bezit van eigen woningen gestimuleerd. Om alles soepel te laten verlopen wordt er op grote schaal gedereguleerd: regeltjes zitten de vrijemarktwerking maar in de weg en frustreren zo het vrije ondernemerschap. Lossere regels en lagere rentes nodigen uit tot het opzoeken van hogere risico’s. Financiele innovaties maken het mogelijk om ook aan mensen die in ouderwetse termen geen woning kunnen betalen hypotheken te verstrekken. De stijgende huizenprijzen maken het zelfs mogelijk extra hypotheek te nemen. Het is allemaal mogelijk: geen aflossing, geen rentebetalingen en zelfs nog een auto op de koop toe. Grote banken werken met een toenemend aantal tussenschakels die allemaal grof geld verdienen aan afsluitprovisies en woekerrentes. De grotere risico’s (waar men zich wel degelijk van bewust is) worden bij weer andere partijen verzekerd en herverzekerd. Er ontstaat een complex web van (tussen-) partijen die de hete aardappel van groter wordende risico’s doorschuiven en herverpakken. Zogenaamde rating-agencies stempelen de nieuwe pakketjes, dankzij dubieuze rekenmodellen en commerciele afhankelijkheden, af als betrouwbaar. Op de balansen van de banken kun je nauwelijks meer zien wat er echt aan de hand is. Zelfs de autoriteiten roepen regelmatig dat alsmaar stijgende huizenprijzen helemaal niet raar zijn, kortom niets aan de hand. Een enkeling die waarschuwt voor de komende ramp wordt weggelachen. Totdat de eerste grote partij niet meer aan zijn verplichtingen kan voldoen en het wantrouwen om zich heen grijpt en de zeepbel barst. Systeembanken mogen niet omvallen, de overheid staat garant voor de verliezen, uiteindelijk betaalt de belastingbetaler het gelag. Ondertussen zijn de eerdere winsten als uitgekeerde bonussen weggesluisd. En dat is nog niet alles: veel mensen kunnen nu niet meer aan hun verplichtingen voldoen, worden uit hun huis gezet en verliezen hun werk. De economische logica is heel simpel: als je met zijn allen lange tijd meer opmaakt dan je verdient (boven je stand leeft), dan moet je daarna op de blaren zitten. Uiteindelijk volgt altijd weer een correctie. In de woorden van Stiglitz: een met schuld gefinancierde braspartij.

De ideologie van de vrije markt

En hoewel de financiele sector hoofdschuldige in dit debacle is (daar zijn beide auteurs het wel over eens), zijn er grotere krachten aan het werk op de achtergrond. Vanuit de wetenschap is de hoofdschuldige Milton Friedman, vanuit de politiek vallen de namen van Reagan en Thatcher en vanuit de autoriteiten en toezichthouders is het Greenspan wat de klok slaat. Deze namen staan allemaal voor een bijna religieuze relatie met de heilzame werking van de vrije markt. Waar komt dat geloof vandaan?

Het begint allemaal met Adam Smith zo’n beetje de godfather van de economische wetenschap. In 1776 legt hij in zijn ‘Wealth of Nations’ de werking van de beroemde onzichtbare hand uit. Er zijn enorme voordelen te halen bij specialisatie en arbeidsdeling. De economie wordt er eindeloos ingewikkelder van maar het komt wonderbaarlijk op zijn pootjes terecht zonder dat iemand vooraf alles plant of coordineert. De markt vertelt via de prijs van brood aan de bakker hoeveel brood die ’s morgens moet bakken. Voor de overheid is bij Smith al een beperkte plek ingeruimd. Van het verbale en bloemrijke betoog van Adam Smith gaat het zoetjesaan naar een meer formele en wiskundige aanpak. Enkele grote namen in dit verband zijn die van David Ricardo en Leon Walras, zo eind 19e eeuw. Een term als ‘Pareto-efficient’ gaat een rol spelen, een systeem van markten en prijzen moet voldoen aan de eis dat door herverdeling niemand beter af is zonder dat iemand anders slechter af is. En bewezen wordt dat perfecte markten ‘Pareto-efficient’ zijn. Dan is er een dip in het denken over vrije markten, in de jaren 30 van de vorige eeuw hebben we de grote crisis en komt Keynes in 1936 met zijn theorie dat markten kunnen blijven hangen in een zogenaamd onderbestedingsevenwicht door een gebrek aan effectieve vraag.

De vrije markt is even van het toneel verdwenen maar de draad wordt in de jaren 40 weer opgepakt. De puur mathematische modellering neemt een hoge vlucht, een hernieuwde belangstelling voor Smith en Walras door namen als Kenneth Arrow en Gerard Debreu. De grote popularisator van deze weinig toegankelijke materie is vanaf de jaren 50 en 60 Milton Friedman (die een hele groep ‘volgelingen’ om zich heen verzamelt, bekend als de ‘Chicago School’). Dan volgt de vertaling van het gedachtengoed naar de wereld van aandelen en obligaties. We hebben het dan met namen als Markowitz en Fama over de efficiente markten hypothese (EMH) die beweert dat het onmogelijk is slimmer te zijn dan de markt. Wiskundige modellen om tot waardebepalingen (samen met de opkomst van computers) te komen gaan een steeds grotere rol spelen. Het beruchte Black & Scholes option pricing model komt beschikbaar op eenvoudige handcalculators. Inmiddels is het niet meer alleen theorie, handelaren en beleggers baseren hun aan- en verkopen ook daadwerkelijk op de uitkomsten van de optie-calculator. En de wetenschap zou de wetenschap niet zijn als ze niet voortdurend zorgvuldig de beperkingen van hun modellen zouden benadrukken. Natuurlijk kloppen de voorspellingen alleen maar als er sprake is van volledige informatie en als alle spelers op de markt hetzelfde zijn (‘representatieve’ agenten). Maar de esthetica van de modellen, hoe fraai de bewijzen zijn, speelt een grote rol en verleidt nieuwe economen tot het gebruik van nog meer wiskunde. Onbewust gaan de modellen en de beperkende vooronderstellingen die er onvermijdelijk bijhoren een eigen leven leiden. Misschien zijn de meeste economische wetenschappers studeerkamer-nerds die graag behangrollen vol met Griekse lettertjes opschrijven, Friedman is zeker minder naief en ontpopt zich als een ideoloog met een perfect gevoel voor timing. In 1980 komt tijdens de kandidaatstelling van Ronald Reagan zijn invloedrijke boek ‘Free to choose’ op de markt. Zowel Cassidy als Stiglitz gebruiken in dit verband termen als: ideologie, kerk, mantra’s en hogepriesters.

Waarom de vrije markt faalt

Waarom? Omdat de modellen maar modellen zijn en een vergaande abstractie van de werkelijkheid vormen. Met name Stiglitz heeft juist in deze traditie van ‘hoe ziet het plaatje er nu uit als de beperkende vooronderstellingen worden losgelaten’ vele modellen gemaakt met onthutsend andere conclusies en beleidsaanbevelingen.

Het gebrek aan informatie is zo’n onderzoeksgebied. Neem de markt voor tweedehands auto’s (zogenaamde ‘lemons’). De verkoper van zo’n tweedehands auto weet meer over zijn auto (welke mankementen die heeft) dan de koper en een lage prijs betekent een grote kans op een wrak. Het gevolg is dat goede auto’s uit de handel worden genomen (de eigenaar van de goede auto weet dat de auto meer waard is dan hij ervoor kan krijgen). Ziektekostenverzekeraars zien voor een gegeven premie vooral menselijke wrakken op zich afkomen (want die weten dat ze zelf beter het risico niet kunnen lopen), mensen die geen risico menen te lopen op ziekte vinden de premie te hoog en haken af. Gevolg is dat de verzekeraar zo gedwongen wordt de premies nog weer verder omhoog te schroeven (verhip, iedereen wordt ziek), waardoor nog meer gezonde lieden afhaken etc. En dan banken: het is juist dankzij onvolledige informatie dat banken uberhaupt bestaan. Als ik als individu mijn geld aan een ander uitleen moet ik hem goed kennen en hem voortdurend in de gaten houden. Een bank ontneemt mij die taak, neemt het risico weg. Maar ook hier speelt dat een hogere rente de goede bedrijven afschrikt en daarmee het risico voor de rest verhoogt. Een bank moet het daarom hebben van de goede risico-inschatting en dus van de kennis van de relatie!

Nog zo’n voorbeeld, bekend onder het ‘principal-agent’ dilemma. De ‘principal’ is de eigenaar die gaat over het te stellen doel en zich daar druk over maakt, de ‘agent’ is degene die in opdracht van de principal het werk uitvoert (maar als hij de kans krijgt stiekem probeert zijn eigen dingen te doen). Het vrije ondernemerschap legt de prikkels op de juiste plek, dat scheelt een hoop controle-kosten, daarom reageren markten efficient op informatie. Maar dat type ondernemer die alles scherp in de gaten houdt bestaat nauwelijks meer in het moderne kapitalisme. Iedereen is in loondienst, iedereen is agent, er zijn nauwelijks principals meer. Bonusslurpende managers van grote bedrijven zijn agents die hun eigen feestje organiseren. De eigenaren van het bedrijf zijn anonieme aandeelhouders, vaak juist weer de werknemers via pensioenfondsen en beleggingsinstellingen. De principal die agent is geworden voert zijn eigen agenda uit en werkt in termen van de modellen marktverstorend.

Dan hebben het probleem van de zogenaamde ‘moral hazard’ (in slecht Nederlands: moreel risico). Als we ons van iets verzekerd weten, veranderen we ons gedrag naar het nemen van meer risico. Als we weten dat onze spulletjes op vakantie toch worden vergoed bij diefstal, dan worden we minder zorgvuldig. Een bank die weet dat hij niet kan omvallen (omdat hij een garantie van de overheid heeft), gaat meer risico nemen, doet dingen die hij in het besef zelf op te moeten draaien voor de kosten niet zou doen. Allemaal vormen van rationeel gedrag maar niet leidend toe efficiente uitkomsten voor de markt als geheel.

Dan hebben we het rationele massagedrag. Het gaat er niet om wat ik denk dat goed is (de juiste prijs is), het gaat erom wat ik denk dat anderen denken. De madness of crowds. Natuurlijk weet ik dat het een keer fout zal gaan met die huizenprijzen, maar zolang anderen maar denken dat het goed blijft gaan durf ik ook nog wel een keertje te gokken. We praten elkaar de hoogte of de diepte in, er zijn meerdere ‘evenwichten’ die kloppen met de rationaliteit op micro-niveau. Maar macro is het systeem uit balans en staat het op knappen. Op rationele wijze irrationeel zijn, wordt dat genoemd.

Tenslotte is er een recente stroming in de economie die bekend staat onder de noemer ‘gedragseconomie’. Steeds meer inzichten uit de psychologie vinden hun weg in de economische modelletjes. Zo is er de neiging je te conformeren aan de groep, mensen die zelf echt iets anders zien, gaan aan zichzelf twijfelen als ze anderen systematisch iets anders horen roepen. Wederom valt aan te tonen dat dit gedrag tot vreemde ontsporingen kan leiden. En we hebben allemaal last van ‘rampbijziendheid’: de kans dat mij iets slechts overkomt is minder groot dan de kans dat een ander dat overkomt. Maar als iedereen dat denkt dan klopt er iets niet toch? Kortom: allemaal gedrag dat vanuit de optiek van de ideologie van de vrije markten niet rationeel is, marktverstorend werkt, en correctie van hogerhand behoeft.

Het grote complot

Samenvattend: de ideologie is fout want gestoeld op het verkeerde model, de prikkels zijn fout want gericht op misbruik van het systeem en gericht op micro-rationaliteit en verleggen van risico naar de ander. Het valt zo simpel te verklaren dat innovaties in het bankwezen niet gericht waren op een efficienter betalingsverkeer met minder transactiekosten maar vooral op het nog ondoorzichtiger maken ervan en op het maximaliseren van de korte termijn beloningen die dat oplevert.

En hier ligt een verschil tussen Cassidy en Stiglitz. Cassidy kan het verklaren met zijn voorbeelden van ‘waarom de markt niet werkt’. Stiglitz komt met dezelfde verklaring maar geeft zijn veroordeling. Hij gebruikt zonder blikken of blozen termen als fraude, lokrentes, zwendel, financiele vriendjespolitiek, geld aftroggelen, lobby-werk voor de eigen zaak en corporate welfare. De wetenschap heeft actief bijgedragen aan verspreiding van gemankeerd gedachtegoed (Willem Buiter, ook zo’n vermaard econoom, ditmaal met Nederlandse wortels, stelt dat de economische wetenschap 30 jaar kostbare tijd verloren heeft door het in de verkeerde richting te zoeken), de politiek heeft als een marionet van de grote bedrijven een foute ideologie gepredikt, de toezichthouders waren stromannen van politiek en grootbedrijf en grepen welbewust niet in cq werkten mee aan de erosie van hun eigen rol en positie.

Als je Stiglitz leest dan dringt de conclusie zich op dat hier sprake is van een enorm complot met machinaties op de achtergrond waar wij als gewone burgers helemaal geen sjoege van hebben. Overdrijft Stiglitz? Misschien, ik ben er niet bij geweest (hij wel en heeft ook diverse malen gewaarschuwd overigens). Maar als econoom (ik geef toe, ik ben bevooroordeeld, ik heb zelf nog in de collegebank gezeten bij Stiglitz) kan ik zijn redeneringen prima volgen. En zijn bankiers dan criminelen? Tja, bankiers worden niet anders geboren dan andere mensen, maar ze zijn wel in de juiste omstandigheden om zo’n rol op zich te nemen. De regels van de wet worden gevolgd (desnoods wordt de wet onder druk van lobby-werk aangepast), dus strikt genomen is lang niet altijd sprake van criminaliteit (vaak overigens ook wel, er zijn vele fraude-gevallen aan het licht gekomen). Maar er wordt geen verantwoordelijkheid genomen en dat is moreel verwerpelijk gedrag.

Visie en verantwoordelijkheid nemen

Stiglitz laat het niet bij een veroordeling zitten, hij laat zien hoe het anders kan en anders moet. Je verantwoordelijkheid nemen, zowel als wetenschapper, als toezichthouder, als bankier, daar komt het op neer. En het systeem zodanig aanpassen dat de prikkels niet langer pervers zijn. Het korte mechanisme tussen kredietverstrekker en kredietnemer moet terug (lees: banken moeten weer ouderwets saai worden, terug naar de kerntaken). Het anonieme moet eraf, het vertrouwen moet terug.

En ja er waren veel betere alternatieven voor de massale injecties in banken om omvallen te voorkomen. Banken hadden kunnen worden doorgestart zoals ook gewone bedrijven met een curator doorstarten, eigenaars zijn dan hun geld kwijt, vreemd vermogensverschaffers worden de nieuwe eigenaars die alsnog recht krijgen op eventueel toekomstige winsten bij herstel. De overheid had leningen zelf kunnen overnemen en herstructureren, ze had daarmee meer rente-inkomsten dan nu ontvangen en veel persoonlijke schade kunnen voorkomen. Maar al deze voorstellen hebben het niet gehaald door banaal lobby-werk vanuit de financiele sector (says Stiglitz). Nu zijn grote jongens door de belastingbetaler zwaar gesubsidieerd, toekomstige winsten vloeien weer weg als bonussen, gedwongen executie-verkopen zorgen alsnog voor zoveel mogelijk geld, provisies blijven door ondoorzichtige producten en te weinig concurrentie gemaximaliseerd worden. Dit is wat Stiglitz ‘corporate welfare’ noemt, een vorm van omgekeerd kapitalisme waarbij de monopoloide instellingen zelf alle winsten mogen opstrijken en als het fout gaat door de staat worden geholpen.

Ook de oplossingen voor een herinrichting van het systeem liggen voor de hand. Bankiers worden beloond op lange termijn resultaten en delen in de verliezen. De boekhoudnormen moeten strakker en duidelijker. Bij meer risico moet meer reserve worden aangehouden en worden hogere premies voor het depositostelsel in rekening gebracht. De leverage moet aan banden worden gelegd. Een aantal financiele producten moet worden verboden dan wel worden gestandaardiseerd zodat iedereen weet waar hij aan toe is. Er komt een ‘financial products safety commission’ die burgers beschermt tegen woekerrentes. De mededingingswetgeving wordt aangescherpt, grote banken moeten worden ontvlochten. Klinkt allemaal logisch toch?

Evaluatie

Ik ben me ervan bewust dat met name het boek van Stiglitz kritisch is ontvangen. Dat hoeft ook niet te verbazen. Het boek had zeker met meer structuur kunnen worden geschreven. En een scheiding tussen feiten en oordelen was misschien ook beter geweest. Toch zit ik niet in het kamp van de criticasters. Dat iemand met een dergelijke autoriteit zich zo persoonlijk durft uit te spreken vind ik juist bewonderenswaardig. Je niet verschuilen achter de ‘wetenschap’ maar juist een moreel standpunt innemen, dat is juist verfrissend. En zijn verhaal legt wel degelijk nieuwe dimensies van de complexe dynamiek bloot. Mijn mening is dus dat je dit boek (en dat van Cassidy, het lezen van de combinatie heft een deel van de kritiekpunten op) moet lezen en zelf je oordeel maar moet vormen. Ik kan hier niet meer dan een klein doorkijkje geven. Stiglitz gaat ook nog uitgebreid in op het nog dieperliggende vraagstuk van de verschuiving in mondiale economische krachten en wat dit met zich meebrengt voor maatregelen. Hoe dan ook, er is meer aan de hand dan wij denken, en het komt niet vanzelf goed, er zijn krachten aan het werk die het zo willen houden, en ‘you ain’t seen nothing yet’. Ook wij stonden erbij en keken er naar. Wie neemt zijn verantwoordelijkheid nu, that’s the question.

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