Kredietcrisis en grenzen aan de groei (2009)

Social limits to growth (1976) 

in relatie tot krediet- en energiecrisis

Een al wat ouder maar interessant economisch boek van Fred Hirsch. Ik heb het in het licht van de huidige kredietcrisis herlezen.

Heertje: groei van economie niet zaligmakend

Heertje? Jazeker, Arnold Heertje, zijn leerboeken zijn voor velen de eerste kennismaking met het vak economie geweest. Misschien niet de meest voor de hand liggende naam in dit verband, want in de jaren zeventig stond hij bij ons bekend als een standaard econoom die zich baseerde op evenzo standaard Amerikaanse tekstboeken. Maar in de Volkskrant van 25 april 2009 wordt hij weggezet als een van de prominente vertolkers van een nieuw geluid. Goed om als aftrap een aantal van de punten uit zijn interview hier samen te vatten:

  • In de economie gaat het om schaarse middelen in relatie tot onze behoeftebevrediging nu en in de toekomst, in iets technischer jargon: om intertemporele behoefte-optimalisatie. Het is een fors misverstand te veronderstellen dat het hier alleen gaat om zaken die in geld zijn uit te drukken. Het gaat dus wel degelijk ook om zaken als luchtkwaliteit en schoon drinkwater. Daar is niets geitewollesokkerigs aan, gewone basale nuchtere economie.
  • Door het blindstaren op uitsluitend de zaken die in geld kunnen worden uitgedrukt (Euro’s en groei in Euro’s), zien we niet meer waar het echt om draait in onze economie en onze samenleving. Het gaat er ‘in the end’ niet om hoeveel geld je verdient maar of je je werk leuk vindt en of je met de opbrengst ervan kunt kopen wat je nodig hebt (inclusief vrije tijd en vrijheid van handelen).
  • Het heilig verklaren van de groei van het Bruto Nationaal Product (BNP) is ook zo’n voorbeeld van blindstaren en niet meer nadenken. Er is een soort vanzelfsprekendheid ontstaan dat een stijging van het BNP altijd een goede zaak is. We vergeten weer dat deze maatstaf een beperkt beeld geeft van waar het om gaat. Als we met zijn allen meer in de file staan en minder vrije tijd tot onze beschikking hebben, stijgt het BNP maar is (waarschijnlijk) sprake van minder tevreden mensen en dus van een lagere welvaart. Deze redenering kan met hetzelfde gemak op het streven naar maximale winst bij private ondernemingen worden toegepast. Is een hogere winst synoniem met een betere uitkomst? Als die winst tot stand is gekomen met werknemers waar hijgerige managers de zweep overheen hebben gehaald en waar die werknemers thuis bij vrouw en kinderen huilend aan het avondeten hun beklag doen, dan niet. Maar dit soort informatie is in de jaarverslagen nooit terug te vinden.
  • Nog een voorbeeld van blindstaren: het heilig verklaren van de marktwerking. Ook hier heeft het idee postgevat dat de markt vanzelf zorg draagt voor evenwicht, en dat sturing in welke vorm dan ook altijd (marktver-) storend werkt. Er wordt dan gretig verwezen naar klassieke economen als Adam Smith met zijn onzichtbare hand. We vergeten dan dat de markt haar werk alleen goed kan (blijven) doen als aan allerlei voorwaarden is voldaan.
  • Het monetaire denken (alles is uit te drukken in geld, groei is goed) heeft ook zijn intrede gedaan in de collectieve sector. Managers die puur op financieel rendement sturen maken in toenemende mate de dienst uit. Volgens Heertje gaat het hier om pure domheid, om een intellectueel tekort, niemand denkt meer na over waar het nu echt om gaat. Persoonlijk denk ik dat het geen domheid is maar het najagen van korte termijn eigenbelang en het na-apen van managers uit de marktsector die een duurdere auto hebben en meer status. We gaan niet moraliseren wat mij betreft, het najagen van je eigenbelang is prima, maar er hoort een set van regels en afspraken bij die uitwassen voorkomt.
  • Focus op werk zonder te kijken naar de aard van het werk. Werk is belangrijk: werk, werk en nog eens werk. Maar waarom eigenlijk? We vergeten weer dat werk maar een middel is, het doel van werk is om zinvolle activiteiten te ontwikkelen, om dingen te maken en diensten te leveren waar we wat aan hebben. Als mensen die geen zinvol werk doen werkloos worden is dat helemaal niet erg. ‘Ze hadden de baan alleen maar omdat hun manager vond dat hij vijf ondergeschikten moest hebben’, aldus Heertje.
  • En tenslotte: het nemen van beslissingen uitsluitend op basis van kosten-baten analyses. Het heilig verklaren van getallen en cijfermatige exercities. Er is helemaal niets tegen een goede cijfermatige analyse in mijn ogen, maar we mogen niet vergeten dat elk model een abstractie is van de werkelijkheid en dus nooit de hele waarheid vertelt. Een model met berekeningen is een prima hulpmiddel dat grenzen en mogelijkheden verkent door met de vooronderstellingen te spelen.

Hirsch: sociale grenzen

Op zich allemaal niet echt nieuw, maar door de crisis worden deze zaken weer actueel. Ook in het boek van Hirsch zijn deze argumenten allemaal wel terug te vinden. De toegevoegde waarde van Hirsch is dat hij hier het begrip ‘sociale schaarste’ in relatie tot vrije marktwerking aan toevoegt.

Uitgangspunt voor Hirsch is dat we in een bepaalde volwassen fase van het kapitalisme zitten, in een fase waarin een bepaald niveau van materiele welvaart is bereikt. In die fase begint het fenomeen zich voor te doen dat jouw welvaart afhangt van wat anderen doen. Jouw genot van consumptie is afhankelijk van wat andere consumenten doen. Hiermee krijgt een aanvankelijk privaat goed publieke aspecten. De stelling van Hirsch is dat in onze fase van kapitalisme deze publieke of sociale aspecten een grotere rol gaan spelen en tot verspilling en inefficientie leiden. Paar voorbeelden: Luchtkwaliteit, ik kan alleen schone lucht inademen als anderen de lucht niet bevuilen. Vuil op straat: ik kan wel netjes op mijn omgeving zijn maar als anderen hun spullen zomaar op straat gooien heb ik er geen voordeel van. Rustig naar je werk rijden: dat kan natuurlijk alleen als niet iedereen besluit met de auto naar zijn werk te gaan want dan kom je in de file terecht. Rustig in een buitenwijk gaan wonen: dat kan alleen als er tegelijk met mij niet teveel op dat idee komen. Op vakantie naar een onontdekt gebied gaan: kan alleen voor de eerste lichting toeristen. Een goede opleiding volgen om je uitgangspositie op de arbeidsmarkt te verbeteren: prima, maar zonde van de tijd als velen met jou op dat idee komen.

Sociale schaarste is een onvermijdelijk gevolg van kapitalisme en marktwerking. Het gaat juist om immateriele zaken die per definitie beperkt en dus schaars zijn. Materiele welvaart is grotendeels te danken aan technologische ontwikkelingen en aan specialisatie en concentratie van activiteiten. Daarvoor heb je een hogere opleiding nodig en moet je voor je specialistische werk verder reizen. Gevolg is meer mobiliteit. Mobiliteit betekent meer tijd kwijt aan reizen en, bij gebrek aan goed openbaar vervoer, behoefte aan een auto. Vele auto’s nopen tot hogere belastingen voor de aanleg van wegen. Van je hogere verdiensten blijft minder vrij te besteden over. Er ontstaan files en je bent nog meer tijd kwijt aan reizen. Omdat je zo weinig vrije tijd overhoudt, wil je een hoop dingen door anderen laten doen. Het zijn met name persoonlijke diensten die je wilt inhuren bij toenemende welvaart, je wilt op die manier extra vrije tijd kopen. In de persoonlijke dienstverlening vindt nauwelijks technologische ontwikkeling plaats en ook dienstverleners gaan meer verdienen. Om je vrije tijd te kunnen kopen moet je zelf dus nog meer gaan verdienen, dat doe je door een hogere opleiding te volgen en te klimmen in de hierarchie, dat betekent nog meer reizen en nog meer in de file staan (want anderen doen ook wat jij doet). Er ontstaat een eeuwig haasje-over spel met als eindresultaat: iedereen heeft het druk, staat veel in de file, volgt opleidingen die niet het gewenste effect hebben, verliest sociale contacten. Juist in een tijd dat er meer behoefte is aan persoonlijk contact is dit schaarser dan ooit. Persoonlijk contact en vriendelijkheid komt steeds meer voor in betaalde vorm.

Hirsch spreekt hier van een ‘commercialisation bias’. De marktwerking neigt automatisch naar betaalde zaken en zorgt voor een automatische uitholling van sociaal draagvlak. Publieke en algemene zaken kosten je alleen maar geld. Je bent als rijke burger ontevreden over de veiligheid op straat. Rijke burgers zoeken elkaar op en regelen het zelf: de gated communities, ommuurde wijken waar gelijkgestemden wonen met hun eigen voorzieningen. Omdat je je eigen veiligheid betaalt (uit onvrede over de publieke voorzieningen op dat gebied) is je bereidheid nog eens belasting te gaan betalen minimaal. Sterker nog: je huurt, wederom tegen betaling, een adviseur in die je vertelt hoe je nog minder belasting kunt betalen. De algemene voorzieningen worden nog slechter en zo verder. Onderwijs, hetzelfde verhaal: het publieke onderwijs vind je onder de maat, je vindt dat je kinderen ook hogerop moeten en gaat het zelf regelen met privaat onderwijs. Het inhuren van private docenten is dusdanig duur dat je geen geld meer over hebt voor algemeen onderwijs. Weinig belastingen betekent nog slechter algemeen onderwijs etc etc.

De kern van het probleem

De kern van het probleem is volgens mij in een aantal punten samen te vatten:

1. Het kapitalisme kan alleen goed functioneren als aan een aantal fundamentele basisvoorwaarden is voldaan. Het kapitalisme functioneert op basis van vertrouwen en een goed functionerend rechtssysteem. Niet alles is voor geld te koop en niet alles kan in geld worden uitgedrukt. Het najagen van individueel eigenbelang is een prima motor voor vooruitgang maar het voorkomen van de excessen ervan vereist afspraken, regulering en toezicht.

2. Het kapitalisme heeft een aantal fundamentele interne paradoxen in zich. Er komt vanzelf meer nadruk op het najagen van materiele zaken en door het oplopen tegen de grenzen van sociale schaarste (tijd, sociale status) treedt verspilling van resources op en wordt de sociale basis van de samenleving steeds verder uitgehold. Het heeft te maken met wat Hirsch de ’tirannie van de kleine beslissingen’ noemt. Een individu maakt op basis van zijn eigen afwegingen bepaalde keuzes (een hogere opleiding volgen om een betere baan te verwerven en meer geld te kunnen verdienen) maar vergeet dat ook anderen diezelfde afweging en keuze maken (als iedereen een hogere opleiding volgt krijg je er hoger opgeleide concurrenten bij en verandert het plaatje, geen betere baan, geen hoger inkomen, per saldo ben je slechter af). In de economische literatuur wordt in dit verband gesproken van een mate van bijziendheid (myopic view) en van beperkte vooruitziendheid (‘bounded rationality’). Moraal is dat we met zijn allen uiteindelijk een ‘product’ (files, vervuiling, kredietcrisis) krijgen waar niemand om gevraagd heeft.

3. We zijn opgehouden na te denken over deze zaken, we lopen allemaal achter dezelfde hypes aan, er is een soort collectieve waanzin ontstaan, we vergeten de zaken waar het echt om draait. Dit is misschien geen apart of nieuw punt maar een gevolg van de eerdere twee punten. Anders geformuleerd: we missen een groep in de maatschappij die ons behoed voor collectieve waanzin. John Maynard Keynes (eerste helft vorige eeuw) had het over ‘managed capitalism’. De vrije markteconomie was prima maar er was altijd een elite van wijze mensen nodig die de scherpe kantjes van het systeem haalde. Blijkbaar waren deze wijze mensen niet onderworpen aan dezelfde beperkingen als de rest van het volk, ze stonden als het ware boven het systeem en hadden vooral nobele doelen. Maar nog niet zo lang geleden hadden we in elke lokale leefgemeenschap zogenaamde notabelen: het waren de pastoor, de dokter, de burgemeester, de notaris en de leraar (ok, de bankdirecteur hoorde misschien ook in dit rijtje). Deze lemen tussenlaag had waarschijnlijk zo’n stabiliserende functie en is nu grotendeels verdwenen. Chargerend gezegd: nu wil niemand nog leraar worden want het is niet sexy en je kunt er niet genoeg mee verdienen, op feestjes maak(te) je veel meer indruk als je iets deed bij een grote bank en een dikke lease-auto onder je kont had (vroeger: vertegenwoordiger kon je altijd nog worden). De leemlaag van notabelen vormde een nuttig ‘feedback-mechanisme’ die dempend werkte op mogelijke uitwassen van het kapitalistisch systeem.

Oplossingsrichting

Simpele oplossingen bestaan hier niet. Ook Heertje waarschuwt daarvoor in zijn betoog in de Volkskrant. Het gaat dus niet aan om een nieuwe indicator voor ons welzijn te ontwikkelen die wel in staat is alle effecten te meten. Meer overheid is ook niet het antwoord. In dat geval ontstaan nieuwe inefficiencies met weer andere nadelen.

De metafoor van het model: simultaniteit en intertemporaliteit

Als tussenstap: hoe kijk ik als econoom tegen het probleem aan? Dan grijp ik toch terug op de metafoor van het economische model. Economen werken graag met modellen. Een model is een stelsel van wiskundige vergelijkingen die ieder voor zich een deel van de economie beschrijven. Het gedrag van 1 individu of groep van individuen komt dan tot uitdrukking in 1 wiskundige vergelijking. Dat is dan zeg maar de vergelijking waar je zelf zicht op hebt. We zagen hierboven dat een van de problemen van het kapitalisme is dat je als individu nauwelijks kunt overzien wat je gedrag jou levert als ook anderen dat gedrag gaan vertonen (tirannie van kleine beslissingen). Een economisch model kan in principe berekenen hoe de onderlinge interacties verlopen, een model houdt rekening met de simultaniteit van verschillende acties op 1 moment in de tijd. Maar een ander probleem van het kapitalisme is dat individuen in hun gedrag ook geen of onvoldoende rekening houden met effecten op toekomstige generaties. Een model kan ook bekijken wat de effecten op langere termijn zijn en de afweging maken tussen voordelen in het heden of in de toekomst (intertemporaliteit). Een goed model houdt dus rekening met simultaniteit en met intertemporaliteit.

Maar natuurlijk gaat een model het niet oplossen, volstrekte flauwekul. Ik bedoel het als metafoor. Een model dwingt je na te denken over effecten en is een gestructureerde manier om de discussie te ondersteunen. Een model kan ook verschillende scenario’s naast elkaar zetten: wat zou er gebeuren als dit aan de hand is en wat gebeurt er als dat zich voordoet. En een model kan ook inzicht geven in hoe je kunt corrigeren of sturen, een antwoord geven op waar de handvaten zitten. Waar het op neerkomt is dat we weer gaan nadenken en weer de discussie voeren. Dat we erkennen dat het niet vanzelf goed komt, dat de markt niet automatisch voor het beste resultaat zorgt. Dat we excessen zo helder mogelijk in beeld krijgen.

De metafoor van de psycholoog

Ik wil de metafoor van het model nu koppelen aan de metafoor van de psycholoog of psychiater. De patient heeft een probleem, hij loopt tegen iets op waar hij last van heeft. Kenmerk is dat hij er zelf niet uitkomt. Hij gaat hulp zoeken bij iemand anders, bijvoorbeeld een psycholoog. Wat doet zo’n psycholoog om hem te helpen (in mijn ogen)? De psycholoog stelt op een gestructureerde wijze de juiste vragen aan de patient. De vragen dwingen hem om na te denken en leiden hem zelf tot de conclusies en mogelijke vervolgacties. De patient heeft in de termen van Guus Hustinx (elders op deze site is een boekbespreking te vinden van ‘Ecologisch veranderen’) last van kleindenken. Wat gestructureerd vragen stellen doet is zicht geven op het eigen handelen en op de effecten op de omgeving. Een psycholoog spoort de dynamiek van het systeem (patient en omgeving) op en zoekt naar ‘hefbomen’ om de ‘overlast’ te beperken. Een economisch model kan datzelfde doen voor een groter en complexer geheel, mits je economisch model opvat als een manier om gestructureerd vragen te stellen en dynamieken in kaart te brengen.

Van kleindenken naar grootdenken

De oplossing is dus om van kleindenken naar grootdenken te gaan. De oplossing is de dynamiek van ons economisch en sociaal systeem op te sporen en te ontdekken waar de ‘hefbomen’ zitten. Dat kan alleen met vragen stellen, dialoog voeren en zelfreflectie. De oplossing komt dus van binnen en niet van meer overheid of meer technologie. Maar hoe dan ook, op een of andere manier heb je om dit proces op gang te brengen en te bewaken de elite of wijze mensen waar Keynes het over had nodig. Mensen die op de een of andere manier niet zelf onderhevig zijn aan dezelfde beperkingen. In termen van de metafoor: je hebt de modellenbouwers nodig en je hebt de psychologen nodig. Maar natuurlijk geloof ik niet in een verheven klasse van professionals die het gaan oplossen. De leemlaag van notabelen komt niet terug, we moeten op zoek naar nieuwe vormen van georganiseerde en gestructureerde denkkracht. Ik denk dan aan een herleving en bredere invoering van Raden van Toezicht en/of maatschappelijke enquete-commissies.

Publiek verantwoording afleggen

Want laat ik daar ook duidelijk over zijn: ik denk dat de vrijblijvendheid er vanaf moet. De zaken zijn dermate ernstig en verstorend (kredietcrisis en klimaatcrisis) dat repercussies niet uit kunnen blijven bij voortduring of kans op herhaling. Ok, daar komt ie dan: ik vind dat iedereen die een bepaalde maatschappelijke functie bekleedt vooraf erkent dat hij mede verantwoordelijk is voor de gevolgen van zijn daden en beslissingen ook voor het grotere geheel (omgeving, toekomst). Daarmee stemt hij ook in met de mogelijkheid dat hij achteraf, laten we zeggen gedurende een periode van 20 jaar, tot verantwoording kan worden geroepen. Hij moet dan verantwoording afleggen ten overstaan van een commissie over zijn gedrag en beslissingen en aannemelijk kunnen maken dat hij heeft nagedacht over alle mogelijke gevolgen en dat hij binnen het redelijke heeft gedaan wat er van hem verwacht mocht worden. Hoe zo’n raad of raden georganiseerd moeten worden? Dat weet ik nog niet, maar daar kun je het over hebben (voetnoot 1). Wat kan zo’n raad beslissen of bereiken? In mijn ogen moet zo’n raad vergaande bevoegdheden krijgen: geldelijke boetes, publiekelijke ontering en zelfs gevangenisstraffen. En wat is dan een maatschappelijke functie? Dat is breder dan je op het eerste gezicht zou denken, het betreft iedereen die beroepsmatig iets doet met een bepaalde beslissingbevoegheid waarvan de gevolgen die van zijn eigen persoon en organisatie kunnen overstijgen.

Misschien een stapje terug: het gaat me niet om straffen uit te delen maar om het inbouwen van een correctiemechanisme vooraf dat aanzet tot expliciet nadenken over de dynamiek die je zelf oproept in je functie en met je beslissingen. Laat ik het zo zeggen: ik kan me heel goed voorstellen dat Boersma tot andere afwegingen bij de verkoop van Essent zou komen in het besef dat hij nog tot in lengte van jaren ter verantwoording kan worden geroepen. Commissie: ‘Maar meneer Boersma, u heeft destijds de bezwaren tegen verkoop volstrekt naast u neer gelegd’. Boersma: ‘Wij hebben alle argumenten bekeken en op een rijtje gezet, overal advies ingewonnen’. Commissie: ‘Wij hebben hier een intern memorandum uit 2009 van een groep medewerkers dat waarschuwt voor precies wat er in de afgelopen jaren is gebeurd. Nergens in uw pleidooi van destijds wordt melding van dit memorandum gemaakt. De medewerkers zullen getuigen dat hun memorandum uw bureau heeft bereikt maar dat het bewust terzijde is geschoven omdat het geen zinnige bijdrage aan de discussie zou leveren. U loopt het gevaar de volledige bonussen inclusief rente en wettelijk opslag over de jaren tot aan verkoop van Essent terug te moeten betalen.”

De toets der maatschappelijke kritiek kunnen doorstaan, tot in lengte van jaren, daar gaat het volgens mij om. Aannemelijk kunnen maken dat je weloverwogen en duurzaam hebt gehandeld. Dat je maatschappelijk verantwoord hebt ondernomen. Niets meer en niets minder.

Voetnoot 1: Als ik het heb over het inrichten van ‘raden van toezicht’ of van ‘maatschappelijk enquete commissies’ gaat het me niet om wat nu vaak rituele handelingen zijn met een hoog politiek gehalte en/of met steeds dezelfde (soort) mensen uit het ‘old boys network’. Het moet echt om een nieuwe vorm van toezicht gaan die hoort bij deze tijd en deze problematiek. Het moet transparant georganiseerd worden en een gestructureerde aanpak kennen (op deze site genoemde aanpakken bieden aanknopingspunten: Mutual Gains Approach (MGA) en Het Speelveld der Verandering (Guus Hustinx), beide aanpakken proberen in een aantal stappen de belangen van alle spelers in kaart te brengen en gaan op zoek naar de dynamiek in het systeem en naar hefbomen die de dynamiek kunnen doorbreken). Je kunt denken aan het proactief verlenen van certificaten aan bedrijven die aan een aantal (maatschappelijke) eisen voldoen, maar ook het onverwacht ‘binnenvallen’ bij een organisatie moet wat mij betreft tot de mogelijkheden behoren.

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