Meerdere personen simpel
We maken van onze Robinson economie een echtere economie door aan te nemen dat we een land hebben met meerdere Robinsons die met elkaar spullen kunnen uitruilen. Niet elke Robinson hoeft hetzelfde te doen. De ene kan nu meer werken en later vrije tijd hebben en andersom. De ene kan nu meer consumeren en later minder en andersom. We laten de noten even varen en noemen het gewoon goederen. Nog steeds is er geen sprake van geld.
Uitgangspunt is weer dat elke inwoner een pakket ‘resources’ tot zijn beschikking heeft. Die resources bestaan uit zijn potentie om arbeid te verrichten (uitvindingen te doen etc). Elke inwoner van dit land staat nu voor de uitdaging om zijn resources in de tijd zo goed mogelijk in te zetten en te verdelen. De enige randvoorwaarde daarbij is dat je over de duur van je leven niet meer kunt opmaken dan je totaal aan resources en vergoedingen hebt of krijgt. In economen jargon heet dit de ‘lifetime budget constraint’. De totale consumptie over een heel leven mag niet groter zijn dan de totale inkomsten of verdiensten in een heel leven. Bij Robinson was er ook zo’n conditie maar die ging daar vanzelfsprekend op omdat hij alleen was en er geen enkele mogelijkheid was om meer te consumeren dan door harder te werken. Met meerdere personen ontstaat nu de mogelijkheid elkaar dingen uit te lenen om die later weer terug te geven. Nu kun je hetzelfde blijven consumeren en toch minder werken door het missende deel bij te lenen van iemand anders.
Laten we weer simpel beginnen en veronderstellen dat de goederen bederfelijk zijn (je kunt ze niet bewaren). Stel ik kan nu om een of andere reden niet werken maar wil toch consumeren. Omdat in deze economie niet iedereen in dezelfde levensfase zit, kan ik op zoek gaan naar iemand die nu meer goederen ontvangt of maakt dan dat hij nu opmaakt. Ik ga naar die persoon toe en vraag hem of ik zijn surplus aan goederen nu mag consumeren. Technisch is dat natuurlijk geen enkel probleem. De enige conditie voor deze economie is dat de totale consumptie gelijk moet zijn aan de totale productie (kan ook kleiner zijn, maar dan moet een deel van de productie worden weggegooid, en dat is niet logisch). De vraag is waarom iemand anders die een overschot heeft dat aan mij zou geven. Welnu, het idee is dat hij die goederen later weer terug krijgt. Ik sluit dus als het ware een lening af en beloof dezelfde goederen maar dan op een later tijdstip terug te geven. De belofte kan op een stukje papier worden geschreven en dat stukje papier is dan een schuldbekentenis die een zekere waarde vertegenwoordigt in het economische verkeer (het stukje papier geeft namelijk recht op de levering van x goederen op moment y).
Kan het terug geven van de goederen zonder rente gebeuren? In principe is een vergoeding van rente niet nodig als diegene die het overschot heeft geen andere mogelijkheid heeft (zelf niet consumeren leidt namelijk tot bederf van zijn goederen). In deze beperkte economie kunnen dus schuldpapieren circuleren zonder rente of vergoeding omdat iedereen zijn levenscyclus van consumeren en produceren optimaal kan inrichten. Zonder keuzemogelijkheid dus geen rentevergoeding. Maar waarschijnlijker is dat het een onderhandeling wordt tussen surplushouder en tekorthouder: wat heb jij ervoor over om nu meer te consumeren en wanneer ben ik bereid mijn consumptie uit te stellen? Ook kan het voorkomen dat een groot deel van de bevolking nu meer wil consumeren en een relatief klein deel consumptie wil uitstellen. Er is dan schaarste aan uitgestelde consumptie en dat betekent dat de kleine groep spaarders een vergoeding in de markt kan vragen. Het omgekeerde kan overigens ook: heel veel mensen hebben gedwongen goederen over en bijna niemand wil nu consumeren. In dat geval zal er een boete (een negatieve rente) komen op uitgestelde consumptie. De boete of vergoeding op uitgestelde consumptie werkt op deze manier als een evenwichtsherstellend mechanisme.
Conclusie: een rentevergoeding bij schuldpapieren is in deze simpele economie onder bepaalde aannamen niet noodzakelijk, maar vanuit marktwerking is het aannemelijk dat er een vergoeding zal bestaan voor spaargedrag.
Wordt vervolgd
Rudy van Stratum
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