Leegstand kantorenmarkt: overzicht van kasstromen in de tijd

Meteen na het zien van de VPRO-documentaire (de 1e in de reeks, over het grote kantorenpand van KPMG in Amstelveen) over de leegstand op de kantorenmarkt pakte ik een vel papier om beter te kunnen snappen wie nu wat verdiende aan wie. Want hoewel de documentaire mij intrigeerde, een echte uitleg van de constructie zelf ontbrak naar mijn smaak.

Mijn conclusie was dat naïeve (en/of gretige) pensioenfondsen hier de tegenpool vormden voor projectontwikkelaar en huurder (KPMG). Uiteindelijk is het dus de pensioengerechtigde die zijn pensioen-uitkering ziet dalen. Een variant op de kredietcrisis waar de prijs van het nemen van te grote risico’s uiteindelijk door de belastingbetaler wordt betaald.

Het is verleidelijk hier te gaan interpreteren maar waar het allereerst om gaat is te snappen wat er nu precies speelt. Persoonlijk vind ik dat ook sterk aan het recente rapport van de Raad voor Maatschappelijke Ontwikkeling (RMO) met als titel ‘Tegenkracht organiseren’. Het rapport gaat in op de achterliggende dynamiek die de kredietcrisis mogelijk maakte maar geeft ook vergelijkbare verklaringen voor fraude in het onderwijs en rationalisering in de zorg. Zie voor hele rapport: rapport rmo . Ik wil in een aparte bijdrage wat langer bij dit rapport stilstaan.

Maar ik dwaal af. Ik heb mijn schetsen naar collega Stijn van Liefland gestuurd en na wat op en neer mailen is een visueel overzicht ontstaan van wat volgens ons de financiële constructie van de VPRO-uitzending behelst. De plaat is te vinden op:


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