Olson over kosten en baten van democratie

Per toeval kwam ik een artikel uit 1993 tegen van de econoom Mancur Olson: dictatorship, democracy and development (google en gij zult vinden). Het trof me als een origineel artikel dat op een treffende manier laat zien hoe economen consequent over eender welk thema door redeneren. Zelfs op het ontstaan van democratie kun je het economen-instrumentarium toepassen. Hoe gaat zo’n redenering in een notendop?

Het verhaal begint bij wat Olson ‘roving bandits’ noemt. Iemand die sterk is komt in een gebied en dwingt iedereen zijn spullen aan hem af te staan. ‘Dit land is van mij’. Eventuele weerstand wordt snel de kop in gedrukt. Als de zaak is leeg geplunderd gaat de ‘mobiele bandiet’ op naar de volgende plek waar hij zijn dingetje herhaalt en zo verder. Olson stelt dat dit gedrag uiteindelijk niet rationeel is. De mobiele bandiet moet elke keer verkassen en loopt het risico dat het een keer fout gaat. Hoge kosten en veel risico dus. Tot het moment dat er een slimme bandiet kwam die bedacht dat hij gewoon op de plek in kwestie kon blijven en er zelf beter van kon worden. Hij zette een kroon op, noemde zich koning, en zou in plaats van anarchie zorgen voor heldere regels en rust. De ondergeschikten wisten voortaan waar ze aan toe waren en moesten in ruil daarvoor niet alles maar een deel van hun goederen (productie) af staan aan de zelfbenoemde koning. Logisch: de zekerheid voor de burgers bracht hen er toe het land weer te gaan bewerken in de overtuiging dat ze een fors deel daarvan zelf mochten houden. Van loslopende boeven zouden ze voortaan verlost zijn. Win-win dus.

Dit afstaan van een deel van je eigendom wordt uiteindelijk gelegaliseerde diefstal of ook wel belastingheffing genoemd. Het blijft de stationaire boef (stationary bandit) er om te doen zelf zo rijk mogelijk te worden, dus we blijven geheel in de traditie van de economische vooronderstellingen van maximaal eigenbelang. Waarom heft de koning dan geen 100% belasting? Omdat dan niemand nog wat doet en hij per saldo ook niet veel ontvangt. Ergens is er een optimale belasting die voor voldoende prikkels zorgt bij de werkende burgers dat ze lekker hun best blijven doen en bereid blijven een vast deel af te staan in ruil voor bescherming. Houdt de koning nu alles voor zijn eigen consumptie? Vinden er geen publieke investeringen plaats? Jazeker wel, de koning ziet in dat als hij investeert in het aanleggen van wegen en bruggen de burgers tot nog grotere productie komen. Dus zal hij vanuit zijn alwetende plan berekenen welke publieke investeringen hem en zijn burgers maximale welvaart opleveren.

We hebben het hier over een autocratie, een van bovenaf opgelegde machtsverhouding, van stationaire boef naar werkende burgers. Maar hoe zit het bij een democratie? Een kandidaat kan dan de macht krijgen door voldoende stemmen te krijgen.  Hij kan, wederom vanuit het economische vertrekpunt, stemmers achter zich krijgen als hij een deel van wat hij afroomt bij zijn stemmers terecht laat komen. Hij moet dus een meerderheid (om)kopen om aan de macht te komen. Nu is er in dit economische model sprake van 3 groepen: de gekozen leider, de meerderheid van de burgers en de resterende minderheid van de burgers. Er is nu sprake van een herverdeling van inkomsten: waar de koning eerst alle belastingen ontving, moet de democratische leider zijn inkomsten nu delen met de meerderheid. En er treedt nog een complicatie op: de meerderheid kent twee tegengestelde effecten van belastingverhoging, enerzijds houden ze minder over omdat de belasting omhoog gaat, anderzijds krijgen ze juist weer een deel hiervan terug als (om te kopen) meerderheid. Om een lang verhaal kort te maken: Olson toont aan dat een democratisch gekozen rationele leider minder prikkels heeft om tot een optimale belastingheffing (maximale totale productie) te komen dan een autocratische zelfbenoemde rationele leider.

Ergo: maximale welvaart wordt bereikt in het regime van de alles overziende rationele autocraat die op eigenbelang uit is. Long live the king dus. Nu zijn er wat praktische problemen die roet in het eten gooien. Koningen kunnen weliswaar hun beloftes op nakoming van de contracten geven maar koningen gaan dood en opvolgers vechten om de macht. En dat is allemaal onzekerheid bij de burgers over het blijvend nakomen van de gemaakte afspraken. En omgekeerd, omdat een koning weet dat hij er niet oneindig lang zal zijn, zal hij wellicht zelf ook een ander rekenmodel hanteren en/of zijn afspraken niet nakomen.

Om deze reden is het uiteindelijk toch de democratie die de wedstrijd wint. De rationele autocratie is dan in theorie het beste model, de afhankelijkheid van een eindig levend willekeurig persoon is een probleem. De democatie kent weliswaar ook steeds een korte tijdshorizon (verkiezingen om de zoveel jaar) maar de afspraken en instituties die toezien op het nakomen van de afspraken garanderen meer zekerheid over de bestuursperioden heen.

Toch blijft de vraag staan hoe een democratie in de praktijk dan ontstaat. Het is duidelijk hoe anarchie ontstaat en het is duidelijk hoe een min of meer rationele autocratie ontstaat. Maar waarom zou een sterke autocraat zelf besluiten om over te stappen op een democratie? Volgens Olson is het ontstaan van democratie te danken aan het feit dat er in Engeland aan het einde van de 17e eeuw geen sterke overheersende autocraat bestond die in staat was de andere groepen blijvend te onderdrukken. De strijdende partijen hadden er belang bij afspraken te maken en de macht te neutraliseren of institutionaliseren (1689, Bill of Rights). Het markeert volgens Olson het begin van de Industriele Revolutie en ’the rest is history’.

Rudy van Stratum

 


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  255. I have to thank you for the efforts you’ve put in penning this blog. I’m hoping to see the same high-grade blog posts by you in the future as well. In fact, your creative writing abilities has inspired me to get my own blog now 😉

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  262. I blog quite often and I truly thank you for your content. Your article has really peaked my interest. I’m going to take a note of your site and keep checking for new details about once per week. I subscribed to your Feed as well.

  263. I truly love your blog.. Very nice colors & theme. Did you create this web site yourself? Please reply back as Iím trying to create my very own website and would like to learn where you got this from or just what the theme is called. Cheers!

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  270. When I initially left a comment I seem to have clicked on the -Notify me when new comments are added- checkbox and now whenever a comment is added I receive 4 emails with the same comment. Perhaps there is an easy method you can remove me from that service? Thanks a lot!

  271. May I just say what a comfort to uncover someone who actually knows what they’re discussing over the internet. You actually understand how to bring a problem to light and make it important. More and more people ought to look at this and understand this side of the story. I was surprised you are not more popular given that you certainly possess the gift.

  272. Next time I read a blog, Hopefully it doesn’t fail me just as much as this one. I mean, Yes, it was my choice to read through, nonetheless I truly believed you would have something helpful to say. All I hear is a bunch of moaning about something you could fix if you weren’t too busy looking for attention.

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  278. You’re so cool! I do not believe I’ve read anything like that before. So nice to find another person with genuine thoughts on this subject. Really.. thank you for starting this up. This website is something that is needed on the web, someone with a bit of originality!

  279. Good post. I learn something totally new and challenging on blogs I stumbleupon everyday. It’s always interesting to read through articles from other authors and practice a little something from their websites.

  280. Hello, I do think your blog could possibly be having web browser compatibility issues. When I look at your blog in Safari, it looks fine but when opening in I.E., it’s got some overlapping issues. I just wanted to give you a quick heads up! Apart from that, great blog!

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  284. Your style is very unique in comparison to other people I have read stuff from. Thanks for posting when you’ve got the opportunity, Guess I will just book mark this web site.

  285. Oh my goodness! Amazing article dude! Thank you, However I am going through troubles with your RSS. I donít understand the reason why I cannot join it. Is there anyone else getting identical RSS issues? Anyone that knows the solution can you kindly respond? Thanx!!

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  287. Greetings, I think your website may be having browser compatibility issues. Whenever I take a look at your blog in Safari, it looks fine however, when opening in IE, it’s got some overlapping issues. I merely wanted to provide you with a quick heads up! Besides that, fantastic site!

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  291. Howdy! I just would like to offer you a big thumbs up for the excellent information you have got here on this post. I’ll be coming back to your website for more soon.

  292. An impressive share! I have just forwarded this onto a coworker who had been doing a little homework on this. And he actually bought me dinner simply because I discovered it for him… lol. So allow me to reword this…. Thank YOU for the meal!! But yeah, thanx for spending some time to discuss this subject here on your web site.

  293. Having read this I believed it was extremely enlightening. I appreciate you taking the time and effort to put this informative article together. I once again find myself spending a lot of time both reading and commenting. But so what, it was still worth it!

  294. Howdy! This article couldnít be written much better! Looking through this article reminds me of my previous roommate! He constantly kept preaching about this. I’ll forward this post to him. Pretty sure he will have a great read. Many thanks for sharing!

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  296. Howdy! I could have sworn Iíve been to this site before but after going through some of the posts I realized itís new to me. Nonetheless, Iím definitely pleased I found it and Iíll be book-marking it and checking back frequently!

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  302. I really love your blog.. Great colors & theme. Did you create this site yourself? Please reply back as Iím hoping to create my very own blog and would love to know where you got this from or what the theme is called. Thanks!

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  312. I must thank you for the efforts you’ve put in penning this website. I am hoping to view the same high-grade blog posts from you in the future as well. In fact, your creative writing abilities has motivated me to get my very own website now 😉

  313. Next time I read a blog, I hope that it won’t disappoint me as much as this one. After all, I know it was my choice to read, however I really believed you would have something helpful to say. All I hear is a bunch of crying about something you could possibly fix if you weren’t too busy looking for attention.

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  316. I have to thank you for the efforts you have put in penning this website. I’m hoping to see the same high-grade blog posts by you later on as well. In truth, your creative writing abilities has motivated me to get my own, personal blog now 😉

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  319. I would like to thank you for the efforts you’ve put in penning this website. I am hoping to check out the same high-grade blog posts by you in the future as well. In fact, your creative writing abilities has inspired me to get my very own blog now 😉

  320. Right here is the perfect website for everyone who wants to understand this topic. You understand a whole lot its almost hard to argue with you (not that I really will need toÖHaHa). You definitely put a brand new spin on a topic that’s been written about for many years. Excellent stuff, just excellent!

  321. Can I simply say what a relief to discover someone that truly knows what they’re talking about on the net. You actually understand how to bring a problem to light and make it important. More and more people need to read this and understand this side of the story. I can’t believe you’re not more popular since you definitely possess the gift.

  322. Oh my goodness! Impressive article dude! Thank you, However I am having problems with your RSS. I donít know why I cannot join it. Is there anybody else having the same RSS problems? Anyone that knows the answer can you kindly respond? Thanx!!

  323. When I initially left a comment I appear to have clicked on the -Notify me when new comments are added- checkbox and now each time a comment is added I get four emails with the exact same comment. Is there an easy method you can remove me from that service? Many thanks!

  324. Iím amazed, I have to admit. Seldom do I encounter a blog thatís equally educative and interesting, and without a doubt, you have hit the nail on the head. The issue is an issue that not enough men and women are speaking intelligently about. I’m very happy that I came across this during my hunt for something concerning this.

  325. Good post. I learn something new and challenging on blogs I stumbleupon on a daily basis. It will always be helpful to read through content from other authors and use a little something from other web sites.

  326. After I initially left a comment I appear to have clicked on the -Notify me when new comments are added- checkbox and now each time a comment is added I receive 4 emails with the exact same comment. Perhaps there is an easy method you can remove me from that service? Thanks!

  327. Having read this I believed it was rather enlightening. I appreciate you spending some time and energy to put this content together. I once again find myself spending way too much time both reading and posting comments. But so what, it was still worth it!

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  332. A fascinating discussion is definitely worth comment. I do believe that you ought to write more on this topic, it may not be a taboo matter but generally folks don’t speak about such subjects. To the next! Many thanks!!

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  334. An impressive share! I have just forwarded this onto a coworker who was conducting a little homework on this. And he in fact bought me dinner because I discovered it for him… lol. So allow me to reword this…. Thank YOU for the meal!! But yeah, thanx for spending some time to talk about this issue here on your web page.

  335. The next time I read a blog, Hopefully it won’t fail me as much as this particular one. After all, Yes, it was my choice to read, but I really believed you’d have something useful to talk about. All I hear is a bunch of complaining about something that you can fix if you were not too busy seeking attention.

  336. Next time I read a blog, I hope that it won’t disappoint me as much as this one. I mean, I know it was my choice to read through, but I really thought you’d have something useful to say. All I hear is a bunch of crying about something you could fix if you weren’t too busy searching for attention.

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  338. Hi, I do think this is a great blog. I stumbledupon it 😉 I am going to return yet again since i have saved as a favorite it. Money and freedom is the best way to change, may you be rich and continue to guide other people.

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  344. An impressive share! I have just forwarded this onto a coworker who had been doing a little research on this. And he in fact bought me lunch simply because I discovered it for him… lol. So allow me to reword this…. Thanks for the meal!! But yeah, thanx for spending the time to talk about this subject here on your website.

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  347. Good post. I learn something totally new and challenging on websites I stumbleupon every day. It will always be useful to read through articles from other writers and practice something from other web sites.

  348. Can I simply say what a relief to discover somebody who actually understands what they’re discussing online. You certainly understand how to bring an issue to light and make it important. More people must read this and understand this side of the story. I can’t believe you are not more popular because you definitely have the gift.

  349. Good post. I learn something totally new and challenging on websites I stumbleupon every day. It’s always exciting to read through content from other writers and practice a little something from their websites.

  350. May I just say what a relief to uncover somebody that really understands what they’re discussing online. You actually understand how to bring an issue to light and make it important. More people should check this out and understand this side of your story. I was surprised you’re not more popular given that you certainly have the gift.

  351. I seriously love your blog.. Excellent colors & theme. Did you make this site yourself? Please reply back as Iím attempting to create my very own site and would like to find out where you got this from or exactly what the theme is named. Appreciate it!

  352. Oh my goodness! Impressive article dude! Thanks, However I am encountering difficulties with your RSS. I donít know the reason why I cannot join it. Is there anybody getting the same RSS issues? Anybody who knows the answer can you kindly respond? Thanx!!

  353. I blog often and I really appreciate your information. The article has really peaked my interest. I’m going to book mark your site and keep checking for new details about once per week. I subscribed to your Feed as well.

  354. I truly love your website.. Pleasant colors & theme. Did you build this website yourself? Please reply back as Iím looking to create my own site and want to know where you got this from or what the theme is called. Thanks!

  355. Hello there! I could have sworn Iíve visited this website before but after browsing through many of the posts I realized itís new to me. Anyways, Iím certainly delighted I came across it and Iíll be bookmarking it and checking back often!

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  358. I seriously love your website.. Very nice colors & theme. Did you develop this site yourself? Please reply back as Iím attempting to create my own blog and would like to find out where you got this from or what the theme is named. Appreciate it!

  359. An impressive share! I have just forwarded this onto a co-worker who has been doing a little research on this. And he actually ordered me dinner simply because I found it for him… lol. So let me reword this…. Thanks for the meal!! But yeah, thanx for spending some time to talk about this topic here on your web site.

  360. You made some really good points there. I checked on the internet for additional information about the issue and found most individuals will go along with your views on this website.

  361. After I originally commented I appear to have clicked the -Notify me when new comments are added- checkbox and now each time a comment is added I recieve 4 emails with the exact same comment. Perhaps there is an easy method you can remove me from that service? Many thanks!

  362. A fascinating discussion is definitely worth comment. I believe that you need to publish more on this subject matter, it may not be a taboo subject but usually people do not discuss these subjects. To the next! Kind regards!!

  363. Having read this I believed it was extremely enlightening. I appreciate you spending some time and effort to put this content together. I once again find myself personally spending a significant amount of time both reading and posting comments. But so what, it was still worthwhile!

  364. I blog quite often and I genuinely appreciate your content. Your article has really peaked my interest. I am going to bookmark your website and keep checking for new information about once a week. I subscribed to your RSS feed too.

  365. Good post. I learn something totally new and challenging on sites I stumbleupon on a daily basis. It’s always exciting to read content from other authors and practice something from other websites.

  366. Hi there! This blog post couldnít be written any better! Looking through this article reminds me of my previous roommate! He constantly kept talking about this. I will send this post to him. Fairly certain he will have a good read. Thanks for sharing!

  367. This is the perfect site for anyone who hopes to find out about this topic. You understand so much its almost tough to argue with you (not that I really will need toÖHaHa). You definitely put a brand new spin on a subject that’s been written about for a long time. Great stuff, just excellent!

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  370. You made some really good points there. I looked on the net to learn more about the issue and found most individuals will go along with your views on this site.

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  372. Hi, I do believe this is an excellent website. I stumbledupon it 😉 I may come back yet again since I book marked it. Money and freedom is the greatest way to change, may you be rich and continue to help other people.

  373. Having read this I believed it was really informative. I appreciate you spending some time and effort to put this content together. I once again find myself spending a lot of time both reading and commenting. But so what, it was still worthwhile!

  374. I blog often and I really appreciate your content. The article has truly peaked my interest. I am going to take a note of your blog and keep checking for new details about once a week. I opted in for your RSS feed too.

  375. An outstanding share! I have just forwarded this onto a coworker who had been conducting a little homework on this. And he in fact bought me dinner because I discovered it for him… lol. So let me reword this…. Thank YOU for the meal!! But yeah, thanks for spending time to discuss this matter here on your web site.

  376. May I simply say what a comfort to uncover someone who truly knows what they’re discussing on the web. You actually realize how to bring an issue to light and make it important. A lot more people must look at this and understand this side of your story. I was surprised you are not more popular because you certainly have the gift.

  377. An impressive share! I have just forwarded this onto a co-worker who had been doing a little research on this. And he in fact bought me dinner because I found it for him… lol. So allow me to reword this…. Thanks for the meal!! But yeah, thanx for spending time to discuss this subject here on your web page.

  378. Itís difficult to find knowledgeable people about this subject, however, you sound like you know what youíre talking about! Thanks

  379. I seriously love your blog.. Great colors & theme. Did you build this site yourself? Please reply back as Iím looking to create my very own blog and would love to know where you got this from or what the theme is called. Thank you!

  380. You are so cool! I don’t suppose I’ve truly read through a single thing like this before. So wonderful to discover someone with genuine thoughts on this subject. Seriously.. many thanks for starting this up. This website is something that is needed on the internet, someone with a bit of originality!

  381. Iím amazed, I have to admit. Rarely do I encounter a blog thatís both equally educative and entertaining, and let me tell you, you have hit the nail on the head. The issue is an issue that not enough folks are speaking intelligently about. I’m very happy that I found this during my search for something relating to this.

  382. Oh my goodness! Awesome article dude! Many thanks, However I am experiencing troubles with your RSS. I donít know the reason why I can’t subscribe to it. Is there anybody having the same RSS problems? Anyone who knows the solution will you kindly respond? Thanks!!

  383. You made some decent points there. I checked on the internet for more information about the issue and found most people will go along with your views on this web site.

  384. I absolutely love your website.. Pleasant colors & theme. Did you make this web site yourself? Please reply back as Iím hoping to create my own blog and would like to find out where you got this from or what the theme is called. Cheers!

  385. Oh my goodness! Incredible article dude! Thank you so much, However I am encountering problems with your RSS. I donít know the reason why I can’t join it. Is there anybody having identical RSS issues? Anybody who knows the solution can you kindly respond? Thanx!!

  386. I need to to thank you for this good read!! I certainly enjoyed every bit of it. I’ve got you saved as a favorite to look at new things you postÖ

  387. May I simply just say what a relief to find somebody that genuinely knows what they’re discussing on the net. You certainly understand how to bring an issue to light and make it important. A lot more people have to look at this and understand this side of your story. I can’t believe you’re not more popular given that you most certainly possess the gift.

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  389. Hi, I do believe this is a great web site. I stumbledupon it 😉 I will revisit yet again since i have saved as a favorite it. Money and freedom is the greatest way to change, may you be rich and continue to guide other people.

  390. Your style is very unique compared to other people I have read stuff from. Thank you for posting when you have the opportunity, Guess I’ll just book mark this web site.

  391. This is a very good tip especially to those new to the blogosphere. Simple but very precise infoÖ Appreciate your sharing this one. A must read article!

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  463. An impressive share! I have just forwarded this onto a friend who has been doing a little homework on this. And he actually ordered me dinner because I found it for him… lol. So let me reword this…. Thanks for the meal!! But yeah, thanks for spending some time to talk about this issue here on your site.

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  473. Aw, this was an exceptionally good post. Taking a few minutes and actual effort to generate a great articleÖ but what can I sayÖ I put things off a whole lot and don’t manage to get anything done.

  474. Right here is the perfect site for everyone who wishes to find out about this topic. You know a whole lot its almost hard to argue with you (not that I really will need toÖHaHa). You definitely put a new spin on a topic which has been written about for ages. Excellent stuff, just great!

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  477. After I initially commented I appear to have clicked the -Notify me when new comments are added- checkbox and from now on every time a comment is added I get four emails with the same comment. Is there a way you can remove me from that service? Appreciate it!

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  483. When I originally commented I seem to have clicked on the -Notify me when new comments are added- checkbox and from now on whenever a comment is added I get 4 emails with the exact same comment. Perhaps there is an easy method you can remove me from that service? Thanks!

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  486. An outstanding share! I have just forwarded this onto a co-worker who had been doing a little research on this. And he in fact ordered me lunch simply because I found it for him… lol. So let me reword this…. Thank YOU for the meal!! But yeah, thanks for spending the time to talk about this matter here on your web site.

  487. Having read this I believed it was rather informative. I appreciate you spending some time and energy to put this article together. I once again find myself spending way too much time both reading and posting comments. But so what, it was still worth it!