Overzicht financieringsconstructies: eerste gedachten

Stijn geeft in een eerder bericht toekomstwaarde nu aan dat hij graag een overzicht wil maken van de belangrijkste financieringsconstructies. Dat lijkt me een strak plan en ik vermoed dat meer mensen hier belangstelling voor hebben, zeker als het visueel kan worden weergegeven in een samenvattend overzicht met belangrijke vormen en kenmerken. En waarom zouden we de discussie hierover niet gewoon hier voeren? Laat ik als start weer wat stellingen formuleren. En een stelling kan uiteraard verworpen of verbeterd worden.

Stelling:

De kern van financieringsconstructies is dat zij geldstromen in de tijd sturen, manipuleren of beïnvloeden zodat betrokken partijen daarmee hun doelen beter kunnen bereiken (een hoger intertemporeel nut kunnen bereiken).

Stelling:

In wezen gaat het hier om ‘verdienmodellen’. Eerst probeer je alles zo goed en optimaal mogelijk in te richten (het verdienmodel). Vervolgens kan als sluitstuk blijken dat de resulterende geldstromen tussen de partijen en in de tijd niet altijd matchen. De constructie die je opzet om die geldstromen tussen partijen en in de tijd te laten matchen noem je een financieringsconstructie. Eerder hebben we al eens gesteld dat als het verdienmodel klopt (goed in elkaar zit, een positief totaalrendement genereert) dat dan de financieringsconstructie een kwestie van uitwerken is, nooit het echte probleem kan zijn.

Stelling:

Omdat het spraakgebruik nu eenmaal anders is en ook de praktijk van verdienmodellen en financiering weerbarstig is, is mijn voorstel ze door elkaar te gebruiken. Het gaat erom hoe je je activiteiten of projecten zodanig opzet dat er voldoende rendement wordt gegenereerd en dat de financiële stromen in de tijd en tussen partijen zodanig wordt gematcht dat de projecten doorgang kunnen vinden.

Stelling:

Stap 1 is dan om zoveel mogelijk bestaande financieringsconstructies en verdienmodellen bij elkaar te harken. We hebben al een aantal recente publicaties genoemd op deze site zoals ‘Verdienmogelijkheden’ van Nederland onder Water en ‘Toekomstwaarde nu!’ van Agentschap NL. Zonder al te veel moeite kom je in eerste instantie op 40-50 soorten en vormen. De volgende stap 2 is dan om de verzameling te gaan ordenen. Een aantal vormen zullen bij nadere bestudering sterk op elkaar lijken. Zo zal een indikking ontstaan en blijven x aantal elementaire vormen over.

Stelling:

Mijn eerste idee is dat je kunt ordenen op tijd en op partijen (kijkend naar de definitie hierboven). Partijen heb ik nog geen beeld van, maar je zou kunnen denken aan hoeveel partijen erbij betrokken zijn, de complexiteit van de constructie, de juridische status, de aard van de partijen, het risico dat de aard van de partijen en hun belangen of activiteiten met zich meebrengt etc. Een ordening op tijd lijkt me simpel. Je hebt in principe 3 fasen in elk project. De start, tijdens de looptijd of uitvoering, het einde of de afronding (dus start, tijdens, eind). En in wezen gaat het altijd om ofwel uitgaven omlaag ofwel inkomsten omhoog. Dus zou je elke constructie kunnen rangschikken naar waar het aan voldoet (en voor wie):

– start: de uitgaven gaan omlaag of de inkomsten gaan omhoog

– tijdens: de uitgaven gaan omlaag of de inkomsten gaan omhoog

– einde: de uitgaven gaan omlaag of de inkomsten gaan omhoog

Voorbeeld:

Een aansprekend voorbeeld van een constructie: stel iemand nadert de pensioengerechtigde leeftijd en voorziet dat hij stevig in inkomsten achteruit zal gaan na zijn 65e (ik neem die leeftijd nog maar even). Het probleem is dan: hoe financier ik mijn dagelijkse levensbehoefte tussen mijn 65e en het moment waarop ik dood ga. In dit voorbeeld heeft iemand wel een eigen huis dat op zijn 65e is afbetaald. Je kunt gewoon je huis verkopen en met de opbrengst kleiner gaan wonen en met het restant leuke dingen gaan doen. Wel vervelend als je aan je huis gehecht bent en niet wilt verhuizen. Je hoort ook van andere mogelijkheden. Zo zijn er instanties die bereid zijn nu je huis te kopen zonder ook de bedoeling te hebben er in te gaan wonen. Je mag dus vanaf je 65e tot aan je dood in je ‘eigen’ huis blijven wonen. Nu kan een simpel sommetje worden gemaakt. Wat is het huis nu waard op de markt? Welke rente zou ik anders op dit bedrag krijgen of ongeveer hetzelfde: welke huur zou dit huis mij elke maand opleveren? En hoe oud zal de bewoner naar verwachting worden? En wat zal het huis op dat moment naar verwachting opleveren op de markt?

Om het sommetje heel ruw te maken. Stel het huis is nu € 200.000 waard en de bewoner leeft naar verwachting nog 150 maanden. Als ik het huis zou kopen en vervolgens verhuren zou ik er elke maand € 1.000 voor krijgen. Mijn investering levert dus jaarlijks € 12.000 / € 200.000 = 6% op. Maar goed, dat is niet wat de huidige bewoner wil. Als investeerder kan ik nu uitrekenen welke andere mogelijkheid mij ook 6% oplevert. Stel dat ik verwacht dat het huis over 150 maanden nog steeds € 200.000 oplevert. Welk bedrag kan ik nu dan investeren om een jaarlijks rendement van 6% te kunnen krijgen? Dat is grofweg € 200.000 / (1,06)^12 oftewel ongeveer € 100.000. Als ik nog rekening houdt met extra kosten van verzekering en onderhoud van € 25.000 gedurende de 150 maanden, dan ben ik dus bereid om nu € 75.000 Euro te geven voor de woning waar de huidige bewoner nog 150 maanden’gratis’  in mag blijven wonen. Zo kan de bewoner in zijn huis blijven wonen en krijgt cash € 75.000 in handen. Daar kan hij maandelijks € 375 vergoeding op krijgen bij een rente van ook weer 6%, zie hier de aanvulling op zijn AOW-voorziening.

Wat zijn nu de kenmerken van deze constructie? De constructie vertaalt een onzeker bedrag op een onzeker moment  in de toekomst (waarschijnlijk € 200.000 over waarschijnlijk 150 maanden) naar een zeker bedrag op een zeker moment (namelijk € 75.000 als hij 65 jaar wordt). Juridisch wordt de instantie eigenaar van het pand waarbij het pand verhuurd wordt tot aan stervensdatum tegen een nul-huur. Financieel betekent het dat de instelling de 65-jarige nu € 75.000 betaalt en op moment van sterven het bedrag van de daadwerkelijke verkoop ontvangt (dan wel op dat moment gewoon verder gaat verhuren tegen een normale huur).

Zo (of op een andere manier) zullen we alle constructies langs lopen en kijken of we ze aan de hand van de kenmerken in een overzicht kunnen plaatsen.

 

 


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